ππ’π΅π΅ππ¦ π°π§ π΅π©π¦ ππ’πππ°π΅π΄: The Race Between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilivre
This election is a long time coming and promises to be fascinating
On Sunday, Prime Minister (and leader of the Liberal Party) Mark Carney called an election for April 28. While this race has been a long time coming, no one foresaw an election that would be a pivot point in Canadian history. The resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, elevation of new Liberal leader Mark Carney, and election of a newly nativist U.S. President Donald Trump with an aggressive approach to trade and foreign relations have changed absolutely everything.
The Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) and its leader Pierre Poilievre were leading in the polls for close to two years. As of January, polls showed that the CPC had a 20β25-point lead on a listless Liberal Party and outgoing leader Justin Trudeau. Since then it has been clear that President Trumpβs tariff provocations were not only about trade; he openly speaks about making Canada Americaβs 51st state. That missile, combined with the elevation of Mark Carney caught the Conservative Party off guard. While they took time to adjust to the big new issues the polls shifted. Within five weeks the CPC and Pierre Poilievre went from overwhelming favourites to win the election to slight underdogs.
The following is an overview of each of the main parties and where they start this campaign.
The Liberals: Reveling in a moment of Carney-mania or just happy that Trudeau is gone?
Early concerns about the Liberal leaderβs banker-like speaking style are starting to abate as he settles into the role. His remarks the day the election was called were clear, firm and assuring, which might just be what nervous Canadians want right now. He has also shown political skill by taking away pet Conservative issues and pre-election commitments. He cancelled the consumer carbon tax, halted the planned capital gains tax increase, argued for liquified natural gas exports, and spoke positively about replacing foreign oil imports with Canadian oil which could possibly be transported by a west to east pipeline. He also confirmed that he would leave planned emission caps in place, something energy companies and Alberta Premier Smith firmly reject as a cap on Canadian production. We should expect this ambiguity to be a significant flashpoint during the campaign. He also promised to eliminate the GST on new home sales under $1 million dollars, thereby blatantly stealing a major Conservative Party pre-election commitment. Idea theft is the kind of theft that voters often reward.
Yesterday Carney announced he would cut taxes by 1% on the first income bracket to save tax filers approximately $850 a year, a commitment in the Conservative Party election platform in 2021.
So far Carney seems to be successfully escaping the shadow of the unpopular Justin Trudeau making it much easier to campaign as a candidate of change, but itβs early. His views on climate change and Canadaβs oil and gas industry still need to be tested. He hasnβt laid out his plan for the economy or fully explained how heβll keep the deficit in check. The country will be watching all candidates closely to see how they will support tariff injured industries and how they propose to stand up to American encroachment. Campaigns always matter, but this one will probably matter more as candidates need to adjust on the fly to President Trumpβs latest views on Canada and tariffs.
In the meantime, the Liberal Party is cannibalizing progressive votes from the NDP, Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois. Many left leaning voters are leaving their usual political homes to vote strategically hoping to stop Pierre Poilievre. The Liberals will need every single one of those votes to win a fourth term and a majority government over a very strong Conservative Party of Canada.
The Conservatives: A strong campaign that can still βbring it homeβ
The CPC has the money, skilled strategists, quality candidates, and - most importantly β a highly talented political leader in Pierre Poilievre. The momentum of what was a Conservative juggernaut may have stalled, but Pierre Poilievre and the CPC can overcome a Liberal makeover and a Mark Carney honeymoon.
The Conservatives will be strong on convincing Canadians that they have the best plan on the economy and affordability. Their just released tax cut plan would save the average family $1,800, more than twice what the Liberal tax plan would save. It is being billed as a way to help protect families from the impact of U.S. tariffs. As voters start to tune into the election and the issues, the prospect of a big tax cut might give pause to millions of Liberal-leaning voters.
Poilievre has carved out a reputation for himself as a defender of working families on issues like housing affordability, homelessness, addiction and mental illness, and crime. He continues to attract large crowds to his rallies. He has made a determined effort to win union support. Lately he has started to show his patriotic side more. Like all party leaders he has pivoted to face the American threat.
He will continue to attack the Liberals for seeking a fourth term when the economy has dramatically underperformed over the last three terms and the CPC will emphasize Carneyβs role as an economic advisor to Justin Trudeau.
The Conservatives will know that picking up more votes on the prairies is no help at all if they want to form government. It is almost certainly the case that winning the election depends on winning the most seats in Ontario and to a lesser extent British Columbia. Ontarians should expect to see a lot of Pierre Poilievre in the next month.
The NDP: Weβll see how they try to save the furniture
βSave the furnitureβ is a phrase politicos use to describe a scenario where you are about to be politically devastated, and this election is shaping up to be a disaster for the NDP. The party will be hard-pressed to hold onto 12 seats, which is official party status in Canada, and comes with parliamentary resources. The NDPβs leader Jagmeet Singh is almost certain to lose his seat, and the party will be fighting to hold onto seats and pockets of support in major cities like Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Vancouver.
It will be interesting to watch how the NDP navigates the campaign; if it can find any relevance at all; and how many office chairs it can save.
Whatβs next: What you can expect from New West over the campaign
Stay tuned here for more analysis, overviews of battleground regions, and thoughts from our team of experts on the federal election.
Below is a sampling of the latest polls and our recent commentary in the media.
Latest Polls
In the Media
Michael Solberg, Partner at New West Public Affairs, is a weekly election commentator on CBC News Network and has this to say about what could help Pierre Poilievre and the CPC recapture some momentum:
Key Dates
April 16, 2025: French Debate
April 17, 2025: English Debate
April 18-21, 2025: Advanced Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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