2025 Saskatchewan Budget Analysis
Saskatchewan residents sent a message to Premier Scott Moe during the fall election when the Saskatchewan Party narrowly secured its fifth consecutive majority government. After a campaign characterized by the rising cost of living and state of the healthcare system, Premier Moe committed to doing better and on Wednesday, the rubber hit the road.
Unlike the Alberta and British Columbia budgets tabled earlier this year, Saskatchewan’s Budget 2025-26 contains no deficit and no contingencies for tariffs from the United States or China. It’s a decision that raised eyebrows especially as the Chinese government’s 100 per cent tariff on Canadian canola was imposed the day after the budget was tabled. Premier Moe dismissed the concerns saying, "why would you at the outset of a budget just loan money, pay interest on that money and have it sitting there in case you need it?"
Instead, Finance Minister Jim Reiter rose to deliver a budget focused on affordability, health care, education, and community safety. While the priorities align with promises made five months ago, they don’t necessarily meet the moment, and Saskatchewan could get caught flat-footed, especially as the U.S. is the province’s largest trading partner with around $27 billion worth of exports crossing the border every year. It’s already become fodder for the opposition, but without immediate impact, it’s unclear if residents will care.
In short, Budget 2025-26 takes its chances with an ever-changing trade war to capture a headline it hopes will be popular with residents.
Saskatchewan's Surprise Surplus
The Saskatchewan government’s 2025-26 budget is titled “Delivering for You,” and part of that delivery is a surprise surplus. It may be a razor-thin $12M, but it means the province can say it balanced the books – at least for now. Saskatchewan opted to not brace for tariffs and is instead banking on a strong financial outlook, responsible spending, and continuing to borrow funds – further growing the public debt. The budget counts on an increase in oil and gas revenue, predicting an average of $71 US a barrel in 2025-26 (Alberta opted for $68), as well a boost from potash royalty revenue to the tune of $119 million.
The Ballot Box Question: Affordability
Affordability is the central theme of this year’s budget, reflecting what residents made clear during the campaign: cost of living is a top concern. The top 5 most impactful affordability measures include:
$250M in tax savings in 2025-26, part of $2B+ in ongoing affordability measures.
Income tax cuts: Basic personal, spousal, child, and senior supplements increase by $500/year for 4 years, removing 54,000+ residents from paying provincial income tax.
$100M+ in annual savings from reducing education property tax mill rates across all property classes.
Extending the carbon tax exemption on home heating, saving families $480 in 2025.
Keeping the small business tax rate at 1%, supporting local businesses.
Waiting for Health Care
In the birthplace of Canada’s universal health care system, Saskatchewan has some of the longest emergency department wait times. Budget 2025-26 invests a record amount, including:
$8.1B healthcare investment with a $485M increase (6.4%), the largest in Saskatchewan’s history.
More healthcare workers with 10 new physician seats, 65 full-time nursing positions, and 60 new training seats for key health roles.
$140M increase for infrastructure (totalling $657M) including new urgent care centres in Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, North Battleford, Regina and Saskatoon, and $322M allocated for the Prince Albert Victoria Hospital.
Reducing surgical wait times by committing to 450,000 surgeries over 4 years, while introducing s a new robot-assisted surgery program at Regina’s Pasqua Hospital.
Policing and Prevention: An Approach to Community Safety
The Speech from the Throne delivered in November 2024 outlined major safety, mental health and addictions commitments, including Premier Moe's pledge to add 500 more police officers and 500 additional recovery spaces. Budget 2025-26 reflects a more gradual approach to investment, rather than immediate large-scale implementation. Here are the highlights:
$798M for Corrections, Policing & Public Safety (16.2% increase), including $119M for the Saskatchewan Public Safety Agency (51.7% increase).
$271M for the Ministry of Justice & Attorney General (9.8% increase).
$16M allocated for 500 addictions treatment spaces as part of the Mental Health and Addictions Action Plan.
$8M increase for RCMP operations ($261M total), including $2M more for the First Nations Policing Program ($24M total).
$6M (of a $12M commitment) to hire 100 new municipal police officers.
$3M to hire 14 new Safer Communities and Neighbourhoods (SCAN) personnel.
$4M to add 50 new positions for the Saskatchewan Marshals Service.
Education: Disputes and Decisions
The relationship between the Province and the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation has been strained – at best - after a lengthy labour dispute between the two ended earlier this month with an arbitration board ruling that class complexity would be included in a new collective bargaining agreement. The Budget funds the new collective agreement, and the following other education priorities:
$3.5B for K-12 education (5.5% increase).
$130M for the new teacher bargaining agreement to address class size and complexity.
50 new specialized support classrooms for behavioural challenges.
$2M for early literacy programs (K-3).
$191M allocated to the school capital budget, a decrease of 11.57%.
$788M for advanced education, a decrease of $5 million.
Graduate Retention Program tax credit increased by 20% (max $24K per graduate).
Wait, How Much? Saskatchewan Record-Setting Municipal Payout
The budget sets a record for municipal revenue sharing, with municipalities set to receive $362 million, marking a $22M increase over last year.
While funding is up, so are expectations. Mayors recognize the need for continued investments beyond core funding, especially for housing, roads, and transit. Regina Mayor Chad Bachynski acknowledged the boost but noted that municipalities will always need more funding. Saskatoon Mayor Cynthia Block expressed gratitude for the increase but stressed the urgency of addressing the housing crisis.
Supporting a Sector Under Pressure: Agriculture
Saskatchewan’s highly export-oriented agriculture sector is facing a number of challenges including three drought years in the last four, a greying farming population, and incredible pressures related to ongoing trade issues. Between increased input costs posed by retaliatory measures against President Donald Trump’s tariffs (particularly farm equipment), recent retaliations by China against Canadian canola exports, and inconsistency in other markets like India, Saskatchewan’s farmers, ranchers and agribusinesses are facing a generational challenge.
This year’s provincial budget notes many of these challenges, and projects that the package of tariffs threatened by President Trump would reduce exports to the U.S. by nearly a third. In a sector that sent nearly six billion dollars of product across the line in 2024, this will certainly create significant pain across the province’s farmers. While we don’t know what tricks the Government of Saskatchewan may have up its sleeve to help support these producers in the immediate term, the province has bolstered investments in crop insurance programming and other business risk management tools used by the industry to restock the shelves of the Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Corporation (SCIC) after a few tough years. The bad news for Saskatchewan farmers: they’ll have to pay higher premiums this year than last – to the tune of more than $60 million in additional producer premiums.
Early Reaction: More Positive than Negative
Leader of the Saskatchewan NDP, Carla Beck, was not impressed with the government’s budget, calling it a “work of fiction” that pretends the last three months of tariff threats didn’t happen.
The Saskatchewan Association of Rural Municipalities (SARM) highlighted both the positive and negatives aspects of the budget. The group is pleased with the increase to municipal revenue sharing but wanted to see more funding for rural road and bridge infrastructure.
CEO of the Saskatchewan Chamber of Commerce, Prabha Ramaswamy, was pleased to see the government’s investments to support businesses, including permanently maintaining the small business tax rate at 1 per cent.
The Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation (STF) was also encouraged by Budget 2025-26. STF President Samantha Becotte said it was a step in the right direction, and they are cautiously optimistic it will be the start of continued investments in public education.
On the flip side, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation is not impressed, saying it was irresponsible for the government to continue to borrow money and calling on the Province to cut spending and stop wasting money on debt interest payments.
Dealing with uncertainty, rather than a deficit
In a time of uncertainty, the Government of Saskatchewan has chosen to focus on what it can control, avoiding a gamble on Canada’s unpredictable and often fickle partnership with the United States. Still, a gamble is a gamble, and for now they can bask in the glow of a surplus – however fleeting it may be. While opposition and debate over government spending are inevitable, the governing Sask Party appears poised to deliver on more than a few campaign promises, but may fall short on helping industry, especially farmers, weather the tariff storm.
The New West team is standing by to help clients find their way as an unclear and critical 2025 unfolds.
