𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: It’s A Two Horse Race
Photo: Adrian Wyld, The Canadian Press
This election is a long time coming and promises to be fascinating
The race to E-Day isn’t a sprint. Although the 36-day campaign is one of the shortest allowed under the Canada Elections Act, these five weeks will feel like a marathon for party leaders, candidates, and the army of staff and volunteers on the front lines, battling it out with their political opponents. So, where do things stand for each party after leaving the starting blocks?
Where the party leaders were in the opening days of the campaign tells us a lot about their team’s internal strategy and how they want the campaign to unfold. After visiting the Governor General at Rideau Hall on Sunday, Mark Carney kicked off the Liberal campaign in St. John’s, Newfoundland, rallying supporters - alongside local candidates - for what he called “the most consequential election of our lives.” In many ways, the campaign can be seen as a series of regional battles, with some areas being more critical to each party than others (more on that below in our feature on the Atlantic region).
The Liberals: Leadership over policy
In an election the Liberals want to be about who is best fit to stand up for Canada’s interests against Donald Trump, the Liberal campaign has gone to great effort to neutralize any advantage the Conservatives might have on policy. It started with Carney’s decision to zero-rate the consumer price on carbon which blunted the desire for the “carbon tax election.” Carney’s decision to backtrack on the promised and long-planned capital gains tax hike is another example of the Liberals pulling the rug out from under a Conservative line of attack. By hugging the Conservatives and adopting similar promises on policies such as tax cuts, removal of GST for first-time home buyers, and support for national energy infrastructure projects, the Liberals are tilting the ballot question towards one of character and leadership – which they believe they have the advantage in, rather than a choice between competing policies.
The Liberal campaign hasn’t been without its missteps, however. Later in the day in Halifax, Carney appeared not to know one of his own candidates, referring to Nathalie Provost - a survivor of the 1989 École Polytechnique shooting and Liberal candidate in Montreal - as “Pronovost” and mistakenly stating that she became a social justice activist “after the tragedy of the shootings at Concordia.”
The Conservatives: Gaining momentum in Ontario
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre found his stride in Ontario, a region the Conservatives must win to have a path to government. Despite trailing the Liberals in the polls (more on that later), morale in the Conservative war room and on the campaign trail remains high. On Sunday night, Poilievre hosted a rally at the Pan Pacific Hotel in Toronto, attended by some 2,500 supporters, with an estimated 500 turned away due to venue capacity. On Tuesday, he drew an even larger crowd in Stoney Creek, near Hamilton, Ontario. Photos show a packed warehouse where Poilievre rallied 4,500 supporters against the backdrop of an oversized Canadian flag.
The Conservative campaign hasn’t been solely about big rallies. On Monday, Poilievre was in Brampton, where he promised to cut income tax for the lowest tax bracket from 15% to 12.75%. On Tuesday, he was in Vaughan, pledging to remove GST on the sale of new homes up to $1.3 million—both announcements strategically made in the Greater Toronto Area, where the Conservatives hope to pick up seats.
The NDP: Scrambles to keep ground
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh launched his campaign in Montreal before boarding his Ontario-bound campaign bus to spend the opening days of the campaign in Toronto, Hamilton, and London. As we shared in Monday’s edition, the NDP is in “save the furniture” mode. There aren’t many battleground ridings where the NDP hopes to gain new seats - Singh is largely visiting areas where the party is struggling to hold on against a surging Liberal Party.
Singh’s tour highlights the real story of the campaign so far: the collapse of NDP support. Forget what you know about typical elections - both the Liberals and Conservatives are polling at levels that would traditionally be enough to form government. But with the NDP crumbling, the two-horse race between Carney and Poilievre may signal a shift towards a two-party system, where the NDP - and even the Bloc Québécois - risk fading into near irrelevance alongside the Greens.
Latest Polls
Speaking of polls, voter intentions remain volatile, but the trend is clear: a strong Conservative campaign has prevented a hemorrhaging of support, keeping their numbers relatively stable. The NDP, however, has seen its support drop into single-digit territory, posing an existential threat to the party. Most of those lost votes have shifted to the Liberals, who have surged into first place and continue to gain momentum. In Quebec, the Bloc is also in trouble, as Liberal support rises at their expense. Despite national polls showing a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives, the Liberals maintain a strong advantage in seat projections due to their vote efficiency compared to the Conservatives’ concentrated support in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
That said, it would be foolish to count the Conservatives out at this stage. If this election comes down to ground game, the Conservatives have been preparing longer than anyone. Many of their candidates in battleground ridings have spent over a year knocking on doors and building support, which could make all the difference when voters head to the polls.
Regions to Watch: Analysis of the Atlantic
Regional Importance
Atlantic Canada has 32 federal seats, a small but strategically significant number in the context of a 343-seat Parliament. You can’t lump Atlantic Canada into one box; the region has a mix of local priorities that shapes its political and cultural dynamics.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney started his campaign in St. John’s, Newfoundland, a Liberal stronghold, but also a strategic location with the hopes of retaining support in the Atlantic by playing into the region’s grievances.
Key Electoral Trends
Riding the Trudeau wave in 2015, the Liberals swept all 32 seats in 2015. By 2019, the CPC, NDP and Greens gained back a bit of ground, winning 6 seats between the three parties. In 2021, the Liberals held 24 seats, while the Conservatives rose to eight.
Polling shows the Liberal Party continuing to hold a commanding lead in the Atlantic (the largest of any region across the country at 52.6% according to CBC’s Poll Tracker) and they should comfortably take home all but a handful of seats that are expected to go the CPC’s way on election day. The NDP remain a distant afterthought in the Atlantic.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
Key Atlantic Canadian industries include fisheries, offshore oil and gas, forestry, tourism, and public sector employment. Many of the sectors are seasonal and resource-dependent, contributing to structural challenges such as outmigration, higher reliance on EI, and difficulty attracting private investment.
One policy area drawing renewed attention is the seal hunt, as the Conservative Party has committed to restoring the harvest. The Conservative argument is that restoring the seal hunt will support fishery sustainability by tackling seal overpopulation, while also reviving a culturally significant and economically vital tradition for Indigenous communities and rural Newfoundlanders.
Recent Political Developments
Carney’s decision to begin his campaign in St. John’s and being forced to address fish harvesters protesting federal fishery management policies signalled that Liberals are aware of rising tensions in their traditional base. His remarks about restructuring the Department of Fisheries and Oceans and his visit to Gander in the first days of the campaign are calculated attempts to reconnect with the region.
Carney’s defence announcement from the Irving Shipyard in Halifax illustrates how the Carney Liberals will aim to tie regional employment (shipbuilding and military procurement) to national security and economic policy.
What’s next: What you can expect from New West over the campaign
Stay tuned here for more analysis, overviews of battleground regions, and thoughts from our team of experts on the federal election. Below is some of our recent commentary in the media.
In the Media
Michael Solberg, Partner at New West Public Affairs, appeared on CTV Regina this week to break down the key strategies emerging from the Liberal campaign:
Following Danielle Smith’s tough meeting with Prime Minister Carney, New West Senior Consultant Samantha Milles spoke to 880 CHED about Alberta’s long-standing tradition of pushing back against federal policies:
Key Dates
April 16, 2025: French Debate
April 17, 2025: English Debate
April 18-21, 2025: Advanced Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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