Showdown in Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Stays the Course, but Sends Moe a Message

The Saskatchewan Party has secured its fifth consecutive majority government. Provincial polls leading up to the election cast doubt on whether the Sask Party dynasty could endure after 17 years in power, but voters gave party leader Scott Moe another four years…if he wants it.

As expected, voters in rural Saskatchewan largely cast their ballots for Moe and the governing Sask Party while urban voters went for Carla Beck and the NDP. The Saskatchewan Party won 29 seats in rural and small-city Saskatchewan, including all four seats in battleground Moose Jaw and Prince Albert. The NDP swept Regina's 12 ridings and took 12 of 14 Saskatoon seats, knocking out five Cabinet Ministers.

It’s the highest number of seats the New Democrats have held since the 2003 election, when they won 30 and formed government for the last time. While there is something for both parties to celebrate, they will also need to take a hard look at what went wrong.

Beck needed to capture the smaller centres in order to forge a path to victory. While she spent time in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert, highlighting local candidates and making major announcements, it wasn’t enough to sway voters.

In a post-pandemic Saskatchewan, Moe faced opponents on the left and right of his party. While he warned about vote splitting, he also leaned into the fringes which may have cost him some of the more moderate conservative support.
  

Heard on the Trail

“The ball is kind of in the Sask Party’s court here and it can go in two different directions depending on whether they look at this and decide ‘OK, we’re going to lean into our base’ or whether they look at the results in Saskatoon and Regina and decide they have work to do.”

- Daniel Westlake, assistant professor with the University of Saskatchewan’s Faculty of Political Studies as quoted by Pattison Media
  

What's Next 

In a victory speech delivered after midnight, Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe was quick to acknowledge the message voters sent this election. In a campaign characterized by the rising cost of living and state of the healthcare system, Moe committed to doing better. He promised to bring down surgery wait times, help people find a family doctor, and improve access to mental health and addictions services. He also pledged to get to work delivering on the platform his party put before the people of Saskatchewan. However, his initial priority may be something that falls outside of that.  

Partway through the campaign, Moe announced that if re-elected his party's "first order of business" would be to introduce a policy that would ban “biological males” from changing with “biological females” in school change rooms. The policy was not included in the Saskatchewan Party's complete platform and Moe did not mention it in his speech.  

Key parts of the Sask Party’s platform are based on advancing policies and programs already in place. For example, the portion on healthcare puts a focus on continuing to hire more doctors, nurses, and specialists to deliver on the Health Human Resources Action Plan introduced in September 2022. New pieces include a cervix/HPV self-screening program and creating a tax credit to cover 50 percent of the cost of a first fertility treatment.

On affordability, the Saskatchewan Party promised to double the active families benefit which reimburses parents for the cost of their children taking part in sports, arts, and cultural activities. They also pledged to raise the personal income tax exemption, spousal exemption, child exemption, and the seniors supplement by $500 each year for the next four years and to introduce a permanent Saskatchewan Home Renovation Tax Credit and increase the Saskatchewan First-Time Homebuyers Tax Credit. Residents won’t see immediate relief from these programs, but depending on when they’re implemented will reap the benefits at tax time.

Moe will also need to rebuild his Cabinet and after some veteran members like Deputy Premier Donna Harpauer decided not to run for re-election and five others were defeated Monday. Saskatchewan Party incumbent and Minister of Social Services Gene Makowsky faced a tough re-election battle in the redrawn riding of Regina University and ultimately fell to the NDP. Minister of Parks, Culture, and Sport Laura Ross will not be returning to the legislature for the first time since 2007 after losing her Regina Rochdale seat by just over 600 votes. Minister of Justice and Attorney General Bronwyn Eyre took 43.7% of the vote to the NDP’s Darcy Warrington who captured 53.8%. After serving for 17 years, Christine Tell is no longer the MLA for Regina Wascana Plains and leaves the Environment cabinet position vacant. Saskatoon Silverspring will also go orange, pending final results from mail-in ballots, with Minister of Corrections, Policing and Public Safety Paul Merriman within 300 votes of his NDP opponent. It will be a challenging task for Premier-elect Moe as his side of the house represents mostly rural seats and those elected in cities don’t have the same experience. 
 
NDP leader Carla Beck spoke shortly before Moe, acknowledging the gains the party made this election saying it’s only the beginning. A visibly disappointed Beck vowed to keep fighting, promising to hold the Saskatchewan Party to account. She also mentioned that change is a process and on election night the NDP changed the landscape. 

As both parties and leaders look back at the closest race in more than a decade there will be hard conversations and decisions to be had. After six years at the helm, Moe may look to step back from leadership in the next year or two. Following in former Premier Brad Wall’s footsteps, Moe would stay on until a new leader is chosen, but with enough time for the next leader to build name recognition ahead of the 2028 election.

In the Media

Saskatchewan Party wins 5th consecutive majority government: The Saskatchewan Party will remain the governing party of the Prairie province it is named after. The win is the party's fifth consecutive majority government — a streak not seen since Tommy Douglas led the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation party (CCF) to five straight majorities in the province from 1944 to 1961.

Saskatchewan NDP sees best election result in almost 20 years despite loss: When Saskatchewan plunged into an election, the legislative assembly comprised mainly Saskatchewan Party MLAs but there will be a much higher number of NDP members entering the building when the government begins a new session.

Voter turnout approaches 53 per cent: Elections Saskatchewan: Elections Saskatchewan says just under 53 per cent of those eligible to cast a ballot in the 2024 provincial election did so when it comes to advance polls, election day and personal care facility, and homebound ballots.