Battle for BC (Hangs by a Thread): It's Déjà Vu as Election Result Mirrors 2017
Seven years ago, after 16 years of BC Liberal party rule, the BC NDP was celebrating on election night as John Horgan took the party to a near tie with Christie Clark’s governing Liberals. Fast forward to Saturday night and supporters at NDP headquarters looked shocked and grim faced as the results rolled in. Cabinet Minister after Cabinet Minister fell to their Conservative opponents with Nathan Cullen, Pam Alexis, Rachna Singh, Andrew Mercier and Dan Coulter all losing their seats.
In a race that was consistently too close to call, residents still don’t know who their Premier will be. The NDP currently lead the BC Conservative Party by one seat, with two guaranteed recounts and thousands of absentee and mail-in ballots still to count.
It was not the result David Eby was hoping for as he took to the stage just before 11:30 p.m. on Saturday. Eby struck a humble tone as he recognized the results indicated the Conservatives had tapped into British Columbians' frustrations saying, "we need to do better." He also made specific mention of his party’s shared values with the BC Green Party, whose support he’ll need, should the seat count remain.
Addressing his own supporters shortly before Eby, Conservative Party leader John Rustad called the election a historic night saying his party has not given up the fight and he is optimistic that the people of B.C. are hungry for change. It was a meteoric rise for Rustad who, after being ousted from the former BCLiberal Party, became the leader of the BC Conservative Party. The party received less than two percent of the vote in the last election, but Rustad, with the help of a federal conservative wave, guided the BC Conservatives to either government or large official opposition status.
BC Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau spoke early in the night as it became clear she would not win against NDP incumbent Grace Lore in Victoria-Beacon Hill. Furstenau chose not to defend her Cowichan Valley seat after it was reconfigured in response to recommendations from the independent Electoral Boundaries Commission. She chose instead to run in the Victoria-based riding held by the NDP since 2005, including former leader Carole James. A disappointed Furstenau praised new Green MLA’s Jeremy Valeriote of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky and Rob Botterell of Saanich North and the Islands whose wins ensure the Greens maintain party status and could play a crucial role in the legislature.
Regardless of the outcome, there will be 58 brand new Members of the Legislative Assembly who will be representing their constituents during an uncertain, but not unprecedented, time in B.C. politics. This is a huge turnover in BC’s political leadership. That’s about the only thing that is truly certain right now.
B.C. Election Leader Board
BC NDP- 46 seats
BC Conservatives- 45 seats
BC Greens- 2 seats
What's Next
The opportunity remains for either the NDP or the Conservatives to secure the 47 seats needed to form a majority government. Elections BC has confirmed the 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots will be included in the final count beginning next Saturday, as well as recounts in the ridings of Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Surrey City Centre, where NDP candidates lead their Conservative counterparts by fewer than 100 votes.
The NDP are likely looking to NDP campaign special advisor and former Horgan staffer, Bob Dewar who helped broker the deal with the Greens in 2017 that saw the NDP take power. With two new Green MLAs, Furstenau will likely stick around in some capacity and may not be keen to recommend another Confidence and Supply Agreement after the NDP tore it up in 2020 and called an early election. If the seat count remains the same after all the ballots are counted, Eby may be able to convince the Lieutenant Governor that he can govern without one, finding enough in common with the Greens to hold on to power and a minority government.
At the conclusion of the initial count, 2,037,897 ballots had been cast, the most ever in a provincial election in B.C. The previous record was set in an eerily similar election when 1,986,374 votes were cast in 2017. It took 52 days for the dust to settle and a Premier to emerge after that election, this time we hope to have the result after final counting closes on October 28.
In the Media
Initial count finished, but 49,000 ballots still to be reviewed in B.C. election: Nearly 50,000 ballots remain uncounted in the B.C. provincial election, and their contents – as well as the outcomes of any recounts – will determine the final result of the vote.
No clear winner in B.C. election race between NDP, Conservatives: Parties locked in near dead heat with vast majority of polls counted.
Election too close to call: Elections B.C. says a final tally will happen from Oct. 26-28.
Days until the final election result is revealed: 6