𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: The Tug of War Intensifies
The Carney Liberals have an advantage, but the Conservatives are still in the game.
Liberal leader Mark Carney will afford himself a bit of a smile this morning. A new rolling Nanos poll has him widening his lead over Pierre Poilievre and the CPC by almost 8 points. Still, it is only one poll, and it would be unwise to assume that his lead will continue to grow or even solidify. There are four weeks to go in the election campaign, and uncertainty levels are spiking off the charts.
This is tariff week, and not even President Trump’s inner team seems to know what will happen on so-called Liberation Day—this Wednesday, April 2nd—when the Trump administration is set to release the list of Canadian exports to face U.S. tariffs. It’s natural that Canadians would tend to rally around their Prime Minister in the lead-up to a moment that could be a pivot point in Canadian history. The question is how would-be voters will react in the wake of all the possible outcomes.
If the tariffs are set to do wide-scale damage to Canada, will voters stay with the Carney Liberals, or will they express their frustration by switching allegiance to the CPC? Will progressive voters shift back to the NDP? If the tariff damage is less severe, will Canadians see the issue as manageable and settled and then move on to the next issue—such as affordability or whether the Liberals deserve a fourth term? Will there be additional tariff announcements after the 2nd, and how will they influence the election? It’s impossible to say. All we know is that the old adage still holds: the U.S. sneezes and Canada catches a cold.
The Liberal strategy has been to match Conservative policy announcements on most issues most of the time, so that voters are left to focus on which leader is best for Canada in turbulent times. The Liberals undoubtedly got a boost out of Prime Minister Carney’s call with President Trump over tariffs, which even the President described as very positive. There was nary a mention of Canada being the 51st state or referring to Carney as “Governor.”
The growing polling gap has prompted internal concerns about the Conservative Party’s strategy and whether it is aligned with voter concerns and preferences. Poilievre wants Canadians to ask themselves whether the Liberals deserve yet another term in office, while the Liberals want Canadians to ask who is better able to handle the Trump administration.
Over the last week, the CPC has proposed several significant policy ideas designed to energise the Canadian economy while also appealing to the big Baby Boomer vote that so far seems to prefer the Liberals. Despite the concerns about a sputtering campaign, Poilievre continues to draw huge crowds wherever he goes—but can he grow beyond his base? It seems unlikely that we will have much helpful information about any of this until after April 2nd.
There’s a lot of campaign left to play out, but our analysis of the first week and where the parties go from here is described below.
The Liberals: Mark Carney the Prime Minister and Liberal Campaign Get Different Grades
There are a number of ‘X’ factors in this election, with a key one being the political ascendance of Mark Carney. As a Prime Minister, Carney comes across as serious, articulate, clear, and resolute—not just on the challenges facing Canada, but on the path forward. This style of leadership has, to date, resonated with Canadians across the country—especially in key battlegrounds.
Throwing a wrench into their week-two plans, and calling into question Carney’s ability to take decisive action, is the Liberal Party’s failure to disqualify their Toronto-area candidate for suggesting his opponent should be turned over to the Chinese government for bounty money. The story continues to garner headlines and has thrown the Liberals off message, while the Conservatives continue rolling out substantive policy.
The Conservatives: Fighting to Make a Case for Change as the Ballot Question
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre had a tough first week. He announced significant (and popular) platform commitments like an income tax cut and increased tax-saving opportunities for Canadians but was also dogged by climbing Liberal support and questions over whether he was really taking it to President Trump, focusing on the right issues, or connecting with the current psyche of Canadians.
That week is done, though. Conservative support—at a base level—is quite strong. If the immediate threat of Trump begins to lessen, even slightly, there is a pathway for Pierre Poilievre to make gains with swing voters. Even more critically, campaign missteps from the Liberals may push more traditional NDP voters to return home if they become turned off by Mark Carney.
The NDP: Fortifying Their Defences (and Their Message) to Save Seats
The NDP has already begun messaging that they are the conscience of the Canadian Parliament—the ones who will look out for everyday people when the Liberals and Conservatives abandon working people for their corporate overlords.
This weekend, the NDP promised a crackdown on “corporate grocery stores” and pledged to implement price caps on grocery items—though they provided no further details. While this likely won’t seem feasible to most Canadians, the NDP is known for a formidable ground game in key areas and has tried to flex some muscle with large campaign launches in B.C.
The NDP knows they are going down but have a target list of seats in Montreal, Hamilton, London, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Vancouver that they will fight like hell for to secure official party status.
Latest Polls
The Liberals continue to lead most polls, but their momentum has stalled in recent days.
Regions to Watch: Wooing the West Coast
Regional Importance
In battleground B.C., with 43 seats up for grabs, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh is making an all-out effort to save seats and hold on to official party status. Twelve of the party’s 24 seats—including Singh’s—are in British Columbia. With NDP support collapsing, the Conservatives and Liberals are on the attack.
Key Electoral Trends
They say two's company, three's a crowd—but for much of the last term, British Columbia had a near three-way split of seats among Canada’s major political parties. At the dissolution of Parliament, the Liberals held 14 seats, the Conservatives 14, and the NDP 12 (down from 13 in 2024).
However, the recent decline in NDP support has turned B.C.’s traditional three-way race into a face-off between the Conservatives and Liberals. Candidates in previously safe seats are now fighting for their political lives, including NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May, who could both lose their seats this election.
Polling shows the Liberals and Conservatives at a statistical tie in B.C. According to CBC’s Poll Tracker, the Liberals have 39.4% support, while the Conservatives sit at 39.9%. The NDP trails with 13%, and the Greens hold 4.2%.
As a result, we expect all three leaders to spend significant time in B.C. over the next 28 days.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
Tariffs, housing, and affordability are top priorities for British Columbians in this election. B.C.’s Finance Minister Brenda Bailey has stated that the province is less exposed to U.S. tariffs than Ontario or Quebec, which export around 75% of their goods to the U.S., while B.C.’s exports sit at about 50%. Still, with an economy reliant on forestry, agriculture, mining, and tourism, tariffs can hit B.C. hard.
Don’t expect tariffs alone to dominate the conversation. B.C. continues to struggle with the highest cost of living in Canada and a housing crisis with no easy solution.
Last fall’s provincial election saw NDP Premier David Eby win by the skin of his teeth, as a rejuvenated provincial Conservative Party capitalised on voter frustration. In a direct parallel to the federal race, provincial politics in B.C. also solidified into a two-party race.
Pierre Poilievre was first to speak directly to British Columbians, making campaign stops across the province last week. He’s had the edge on affordability, but as the ballot-box question has turned to Trump, his support in B.C. has wavered.
Recent Political Developments
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has spent much of his time in B.C. targeting NDP-held ridings, including Nanaimo–Ladysmith and Port Moody–Coquitlam.
Jagmeet Singh will spend today on Vancouver Island, where he must defend five seats from growing Conservative support and a strengthening Liberal presence.
Late last year, NDP MP Randall Garrison resigned his Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke seat to focus on his health. The Island-based MP was first elected in 2011 and served four consecutive terms. His seat has been vacant since December and is prime picking.
One of only two Green Party seats is also on Vancouver Island. Co-Leader Elizabeth May has represented Saanich–Gulf Islands since 2011. However, former leader of B.C.’s provincial Green Party, Andrew Weaver, is rumoured to be considering a run under the Liberal banner, which could make things interesting.
What you can expect from New West over the campaign
Stay tuned for more analysis, overviews of battleground regions, and thoughts from our team of experts on the federal election. Below is some of our recent commentary in the media.
In the Media
Listen to New West Partner Mike Solberg on CBC’s newly launched Weekly Wrap podcast, breaking down the latest from the federal election campaign trail.
Key Dates
April 16, 2025: French Debate
April 17, 2025: English Debate
April 18-21, 2025: Advanced Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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