𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Digging in, Changing Landscape, and Mudslinging

As the election campaign nears the end of week two, the polling landscape appears to be showing signs of stabilizing. An aggregate of polling compiled by Philippe J. Fournier for 338 Canada shows the Liberals opening up an early lead over the Conservatives at the beginning of the campaign – at the expense of nearly every other party. For both the Conservatives and the Liberals alike, the parties are in a holding pattern where growth and shifting of voter intention has stalled for the time being. At an average of five percentage points behind the Liberals, the Conservatives need to find some weakness in the Liberal’s defences to exploit.

The upshot for the Liberals: the lead the Conservatives must overcome is bigger than it looks. Because of their more even distribution of support and better vote efficiency, the Liberals win disproportionately more seats compared to their vote share. Case in point, sitting at 49% support in Ontario, the Liberals would win 82 seats or 67% of the 122 seats up for grabs in Ontario.  

The upshot for the Conservatives: with more than three weeks until election day, there is still plenty of time left on the clock to shift voters into the blue column. Moreover, some data shows that a lot of voters have not mzade up their minds, and are persuadable on issues such as affordability, housing, and economic growth.

Trump Tariffs & the "Trudeau Bump"?

With so called “Liberation-Day” behind us, and with Canada mostly spared in this salvo of tariffs (steel, aluminum, auto, and 25% “fentanyl” tariffs still stand), the question now is how much Donald Trump and the United States will continue to shape the remainder of the campaign. One theory holds that with the immediate threat of additional economic damage temporarily on hold, voters will have room to consider parties’ policies on pocketbook issues. On the other hand, it’s possible that the fact the U.S. President’s rhetoric towards Canada appears to have cooled off a bit gives Mark Carney an incumbency bump by allowing the Liberal leader to appear Prime Ministerial in his dealings with the U.S. administration.  

The Battle for Damage Control:

When it comes to the front lines of the campaign, both the Liberals and Conservatives have taken casualties over the last few days as they take pot shots at one another. Liberal leader Mark Carney’s decision to stand by his party’s candidate in Markham-Unionville after he said people should bring a Conservative politician to the local Chinese consulate to collect a bounty on him for criticizing Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong caused a multi-day media frenzy, only for the candidate, Paul Chiang, to step down of his own accord. The Liberals also dropped a candidate in Calgary after the party learned about an undisclosed but stayed domestic assault charge in the candidate’s past.  

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have dropped four candidates in the past week. In Etobicoke North, the Conservatives dropped a candidate who suggested people be deported to India where “PM Modi can take care of these non-sense people.” The party also dropped a Montreal area candidate, a candidate in Windsor who joked about public hangings, and a candidate in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. The deadline for candidates to get on the ballot is April 7.

Latest Polls

In the Media

New West CEO Hon. Monte Solberg P.C. joined CBC’s Calgary Eyeopener to talk affordability, tax cuts, and the messages that are—and aren’t—resonating with Canadians this election. Listen in by clicking below 👇

Key Dates

• April 7, 2025: Candidate Nomination Deadline 

• April 16, 2025: French Debate

• April 17, 2025: English Debate

• April 18-21, 2025: Advanced Polling

• April 28, 2025: Election Day
  
  

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