𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Trump Turmoil Continues to Dominate Race
Ongoing chaos from the Trump Administration favours the Carney Liberals. Conservatives are still in the game but will need to start breaking through in week 3 to turn things around.
Canadians will be watching U.S. equity markets and Donald Trump this week, and what they see will likely influence their choice at the ballot box on April 28. A wave of nationwide anti-Trump protests, tariffs, tariff reversals, counter tariffs, recession concerns, stock market fluctuations, spiking Congressional anxiety, and a frenetic White House all contribute to a sense that the world is in trouble.
Canadians will be seeking stability. That’s a big opening for the Liberals to continue their momentum this week.
It gives Liberal leader Mark Carney the chance to stand at a podium in his role as Prime Minister of Canada while citing his experience as a former central banker to assure Canadians and propose a way forward. Standing at the podium with the full weight of the Prime Minister’s Office behind him bestows instant gravitas. If, however, President Trump indicates he’s backing off and heart rates return to normal, it offers a chance for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives to turn the discussion to whether the Liberals deserve a fourth term in office - a question that brings the Liberal’s economic record into focus. Advantage Conservative.
The NDP are struggling for relevance as most NDP supporters seem to realize that they need to vote Liberal to have a chance of influencing the outcome of the election. This week, all leaders will be responding to the news instead of making it. They’ll need to react to any new tariffs on Canadian exports, such as pharmaceuticals or lumber, and any other provocations that come from the Trump administration,
Most national polls show the Liberals up by roughly five points on average, and with even bigger leads in the key battleground of Ontario. Meanwhile, Conservative Party rallies are attracting huge audiences which may speak to voter enthusiasm among their base, but that alone will not be enough. They must start to punch through among suburban Ontario swing voters. That’s undoubtedly the CPC mission for the week ahead.
Latest Polls
The Liberals continue to lead almost all polls conducted by Canada’s most experienced public opinion researchers.
Regions to Watch: Why Manitoba Matters
Regional Importance
With 14 federal seats, Manitoba isn’t a make-or-break battleground on the path to forming government. However, with its uniquely diverse economy and access to tidewater, this province will see its fair share of attention this election.
At the dissolution of Parliament, the New Democrats and Liberals both held four seats, while the Conservatives had six. On the ground, NDP candidates have been quick to dismiss the collapse in orange support, but if public opinion polls hold, the party could be shut out.
Key Electoral Trends
Manitoba has a bellwether riding with a perfect record since taking its current form in 1988. In 11 consecutive elections, the party that’s won Winnipeg South has also formed government. While Winnipeg South Liberal MP Terry Duguid may have been sweating just a few months ago, 338Canada is now projecting his to be a safe Liberal seat.
It’s reflective of the dynamics playing out across the country. In one of Canada’s largest federal ridings, Churchill-Keewatinook Aski, the NDP’s Niki Ashton is facing a real fight. Ashton was first elected in 2008 and has won every election since, but Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand gave her a run for her money during the Trudeau wave in 2015 and is trying again this year.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
Manitoba is the only prairie province with access to tidewater. In early February, as tariffs from the United States loomed, the provincial and federal governments announced a joint $80-million investment in the Port of Churchill. At the time, NDP Premier Wab Kinew said investing in the port was one way to “Trump proof” the economy, establishing connections with Europe and beyond.
With industries like agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, mining, and forestry, Manitoba has a broad economic base. Its capital city, Winnipeg, also has the largest urban Indigenous population in Canada. As the ballot box question continues to be about which leader is most capable of managing U.S. President Donald Trump and the ongoing trade war, Indigenous leaders in the province are calling for reconciliation to become a bigger focus.
Recent Political Developments
CPC leader Pierre Poilievre was the first to campaign in the middle province, promising to expand tax write-offs for traveling trade workers, expedite licensing requirements for health-care workers, and to bring change to Canada's bail system. Poilievre drew a big crowd to a rally held on the west side of Winnipeg, which speaks to Conservative momentum in the province.
Just two days later, LPC leader Mark Carney visited the province. During a campaign stop at Winnipeg’s New Flyer Industries Transcona-area plant, he spoke about tariffs, retaliatory measures, and making life more affordable for Canadians. He used his dual hat to his advantage, meeting with Premier Kinew in his capacity as Prime Minister. The two spoke about the response to tariffs and impact on Manitoba before Carney switched back to campaign mode for an evening rally.
Neither leader spoke specifically to Indigenous communities. First Nations leaders have expressed frustration with the lack of attention. Brokenhead Ojibway Nation Chief Gordon Bluesky said he would like to see the prosperity of First Nations mentioned "in the same breath" as the rest of the country's.
In the Media
Listen to New West Partner Mike Solberg on CBC’s Weekly Wrap podcast, where he shares what he’s watching for this week.
New West CEO Monte Solberg joined the CBC’s Calgary Eyeopener to break down how economic shocks can derail even the best-laid political game plans.
Key Dates
TODAY: Candidate Nomination Deadline
April 16, 2025: French Debate
April 17, 2025: English Debate
April 18-21, 2025: Advanced Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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