𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Halfway Through
Pulling ahead, spinning wheels and falling behind: where do the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP stand midway through the campaign?
After imposing broad reciprocal tariffs last Wednesday—on so-called “Liberation Day”—and spending the past week underscoring their firm commitment to maintaining them, the Trump administration has abruptly reversed course. The U.S. has now announced a 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, instead introducing a blanket 10 per cent tariff on imports. This development almost certainly continues to benefit Mark Carney and the Liberals, who as the incumbent government are seen by Canadians as a source of stability amid the virtually impossible-to-predict policy direction of the U.S. administration.
It also doesn’t help the Liberal’s opponents that President Donald Trump’s tendency to dominate the media cycle keeps him top of mind for voters—sustaining the Liberal’s preferred ballot box question, “Who is best suited to deal with Donald Trump?” Case in point: on Wednesday afternoon—roughly the midpoint of the campaign—rather than focusing on the issues and campaign messages of the various party leaders, news coverage was consumed by Trump’s latest trade announcement. Canadian media were in a frenzy trying to clarify where Canada would land amid the 90-day pause.
The three major party leaders continue to release substantive policy announcements, but with the Canada-U.S. relationship dominating headlines and voter priorities, it’s difficult for the parties to cut through the noise.
The Liberals
Liberal leader Mark Carney was in Alberta this week. At an event in Calgary, he unveiled his party’s plan to make Canada an “energy superpower.” Continuing a strategy of closely tracking Conservative positions on key policy issues, Carney’s Liberals pledged to accelerate the review of resource and energy projects. He also announced a new “First and Last Mile Fund” to connect critical mineral projects to supply chains. While the details of the Liberal and Conservative plans to kickstart Canada’s resource sector differ, both parties now appear to agree on the need to fast-track approvals and place renewed emphasis on critical mineral development.
The Conservatives
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, announced a new policy targeting repeat offenders. A Conservative government would introduce a “three strikes, you’re out” law, imposing a minimum 10-year prison sentence without eligibility for parole for individuals convicted of three serious offences. The Liberals also released criminal justice policy this week, which in contrast to the Conservative plan includes a renewed effort to keep “assault-style” weapons off Canadian streets, would provide more resources for law enforcement agencies, and includes a promise for new online harms legislation to address a rise in hate related activity.
Conservative momentum that had been building earlier in the week also appears to have stalled. Abacus Data—one of the last major pollsters not yet reporting a Liberal lead—released a new poll Wednesday showing the Liberals opening up a six-point advantage over the Conservatives. Poilievre continues to draw massive crowds, indicating a sizable and motivated base of voters. But with Trump dominating headlines and the Liberals hugging the Conservatives on policy, it’s proving difficult for the Conservatives to break through and win over the additional voters they need to bring to their camp.
The NDP
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s announcement on pharmacare Wednesday was significant not so much for the policy itself, but for what it signalled. The announcement that “Carney won’t expand pharmacare without the NDP” was a tacit acknowledgement that Singh is not in the running for Prime Minister. Instead, his message casts the party as one that will hold a Carney government accountable to progressive voters. It reflects a broader shift in the NDP’s campaign strategy: one that now appears less focused on winning government themselves and more on making the case for electing more New Democrats to Parliament to influence the next government – whether Liberal or Conservative.
Latest Polls
Regions to Watch: Alberta’s Big Cities
Regional Importance
Alberta is the beating heart of Canada’s conservative movement and a stronghold region for the CPC that can be expected to send at least 30 or so MPs to Ottawa every election. But just like every other political region in North America, Alberta’s largest cities can be quite progressive. For instance, the Alberta NDP has basically swept Edmonton three elections in a row and Calgary has elected progressive Mayors for 15 years.
All in all, Alberta has 37 seats and isn’t a make-or-break battleground to forming government. Carney may not need Alberta to win government. But he does need to show that the Liberals can compete here. A breakthrough in Calgary and Edmonton would not only add key seats to the Liberal column it would help counter the narrative that the Liberal Party is anti-Alberta.
Key Electoral Trends
The 2015 “Trudeaumania 2.0” wave delivered four seats to the Liberals in Alberta - two in Calgary and two in Edmonton. By 2021, that had been cut in half, with the Conservatives taking 30 of 34 seats and the NDP taking two. But as the Alberta seat count grows (the province picked up three more ridings thanks to redistribution), there are signs of renewed urban competitiveness for the progressive parties.
Both Calgary and Edmonton are becoming increasingly competitive at the federal level. Progressive voters have proven they will coalesce when motivated and cast strategic ballots. This is especially true when the threat of a Poilievre-led government looms.
According to campaign insiders, the Liberals believe up to nine Alberta seats could be in play for them this cycle – four in Calgary and five in Edmonton. This includes Calgary-McKnight, Calgary-Confederation, Calgary-Centre, and Calgary-Skyview. In the provincial capital, the Liberal target list includes Edmonton-Centre, Edmonton-Southeast, Edmonton-Gateway, Edmonton-Riverbend, and Edmonton-West.
Winning four seats in Alberta would be considered a success for the Liberals. If somehow they can convert on some of the longer-odds ridings they’re targeting through a red tide, there’s a chance we see Alberta elect its largest cohort of federal Liberals in 57 years.
The NDP’s fortress of Edmonton-Strathcona is expected to remain in the orange column this election, but strategic voting is expected to play a major role with progressives. If NDP support continues to crater nationally, it can create opportunities for Liberal gains, but also risks splitting the progressive vote and handing some ridings back to the Conservatives – such as the NDP’s other Alberta seat in Edmonton-Griesbach.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
Alberta’s electoral mood is always shaped by the state of its resource economy and its relationship with Ottawa. The oil price crash of 2015 followed by federal climate policies, viewed as hostile to Alberta’s core industries, has pushed the province deeper into CPC territory the last number of years.
Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government has responded to the Liberal government with policies like the Sovereignty Act, and pushed for more provincial autonomy over policing and pensions. The federal Liberals, for their part, have struggled to rebuild any trust throughout this period of elevated tensions.
Still, urban voters in Alberta may be open to a new federal pitch. A centrist figure like Mark Carney with private sector credibility, policy depth, and none of the Trudeau-era baggage could be well-positioned to change the story in Calgary and Edmonton.
Campaign Developments
While Mark Carney has the advantage of being the prime minister during this campaign, Pierre Poilievre has the weight of a former PM behind him. During a rally held outside of Edmonton on Monday, Stephen Harper introduced the current CPC leader and gave him a ringing endorsement. Harper pointed out his unique position, noting he’s the only person who can say that both Poilievre and Carney once worked for him.
Campaigning in Alberta, Carney responded to the endorsement saying Harper appointed him as the Governor of the Bank of Canada and he worked closely with the late Jim Flaherty during the financial crisis to solve issues. He then took a jab at his opponent, noting Poilievre wasn’t at those tables.
Poilievre has pulled huge crowds across the country and his rally near Edmonton was no exception with the CPC estimating attendance at 12,000 people. Carney also held his own Alberta rally this week in Calgary with about 2,300 people present. It reflects what we’re seeing in the polls with the CBC's Poll Tracker suggesting Liberal support in Alberta has doubled since 2021, but the CPC still has a commanding lead in the province.
In the Media
New West CEO Monte Solberg joined the CBC's 𝘈𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘏𝘢𝘱𝘱𝘦𝘯𝘴 to talk about the impact former Prime Minister Stephen Harper's endorsement has on the Conservative campaign and what the party needs to do to pull ahead in the polls and win the election:
Key Dates
April 16, 2025: French Debate
April 17, 2025: English Debate
April 18-21, 2025: Advance Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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