𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Carney’s Closing Advantage
The 2025 federal election is in its final throes with just three days until Election Day. Going into the final weekend, the Liberals hold a narrow, but meaningful lead over the Conservatives nationally, while 7.3 million Canadians already voted during last weekend’s advance polls.
It has been an election that everyone knew was coming, but few predicted would play out the way it has. The Conservative lead in early 2025 looked virtually insurmountable – indeed few Liberals seemed confident the party could win. But with a refreshed leader in Mark Carney, the Liberals quickly made up ground and opened a modest lead over the Conservatives, which has persisted – despite the Conservative campaign’s best efforts – since the early days of the campaign.
It appears almost certain the Liberals will prevail Monday night, more likely than not securing a majority government as they hold a roughly 3-4 percentage point lead over their rival. We’ve discussed the dynamic here before, but it bears repeating that there is no one national race for Prime Minister. The federal election is a series of 343 individual races that can roughly be grouped by region. While the Conservatives maintain a strong lead in the prairie provinces, and are competitive in British Columbia, all signs point to the Atlantic firmly in the Liberal’s grasp, and a commanding lead is also held by the Liberals in Ontario (more on that below) and Quebec. The result: despite running up the score in Western Canada, it’s difficult to see a viable path to victory for the Conservatives, even if British Columbia is competitive. At the end of the day, the Conservatives may form Official Opposition despite running one of the most disciplined campaigns and securing the highest percentage of the popular vote for a Conservative campaign in recent history.
The final days of the campaign have seen Donald Trump reinsert himself into the election equation with a reassertion that he believes Canada should become the 51st state. The March 28 call between Trump and Mark Carney has resurfaced as a point of contention, with Liberal leader Mark Carney now saying President Trump did bring up the prospect of Canada being the 51st state, seemingly contradicting previous statements. Despite the efforts of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, the story is unlikely to shift the election outcome in any meaningful way with people’s perceptions baked in and so many ballots already cast.
Likewise, stories about a close race in Pierre Poilievre’s riding of Carleton suggesting the Conservative leader might be in trouble, or a flashy new social media video launched by Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston – which some have described as a soft launch for a leadership challenge – make for good fodder for political staff, volunteers, and pundits alike, but are unlikely to resonate one way or another with voters as they cast their ballot.
Regardless of the outcome on Monday night, New West has you covered. We’ll break down the results in Tuesday’s edition of Canada’s Battle for the Ballots, and join our webinar on Thursday May 1st where we will discuss what the result of the election means for Canada and how to navigate the new political landscape.
Latest Polls
Regions to Watch: The GTA (Greater Toronto Area) Gauntlet
Regional Importance
It’s a tired trope, but the path to government goes through the Greater Toronto Area. The vote rich region has 55 seats between the 416 and 905, plenty to tip the scales to a majority government with a strong showing by the Liberals. It’s been 14 years since the Conservative Party has been able to capture enough seats in the GTA to form a majority, and that trend doesn’t appear to be changing come Monday night. That’s not to say some of the races won’t be highly competitive; across the region, long-time assumptions are being tested, and the current electoral map could shift come election night.
Key Electoral Trends
In Toronto proper, ridings like Davenport, Toronto—St. Paul’s, and Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park – progressive swing ridings – could be interesting races to watch on election night as the NDP hold onto hope that strong local candidates will prevent the party from being entirely blown out on election night. Ridings like Peterborough and Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill have also flipped between the Liberals and Conservatives in recent elections. For Poilievre’s Conservatives, it will come down to seats like King—Vaughan, Newmarket-Aurora, Brampton Centre, Vaughan—Woodbridge, Milton, and Mississauga—Lakeshore. These are all areas where Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party wins and where the federal conservatives are hoping their ground game will give them a narrow lane to replicate that success.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
Affordability isn’t just top of mind, it’s driving the conversation and framing the ballot box question for many GTA voters. The Liberals are campaigning on expanded infrastructure, housing investments, and targeted tax relief. The Conservatives are zeroing in on housing, inflation, bail reform and crime. The NDP’s focus is squarely on working families, putting forward pharmacare, and rental assistance to re-engage disillusioned voters.
In the Media
How many Liberals will the Prairies send to Ottawa? It won’t decide the election, but it will shape the national conversation. New West CEO Monte Solberg joined CBC’s Eyeopener to unpack what Monday’s vote could mean for federal-provincial relations in the West.
Key Dates
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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