𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Liberals Maintain Edge as Countdown to Election Day Begins
While Conservatives have made the race a bit tighter, their gains may be a tale of too little, too late.
Sometimes in politics, timing is everything.
As the countdown to election day hits single digits, the Liberals appear to have played their timing cards right. The Liberals made a bet that a shorter campaign could capitalize on Mark Carney’s honeymoon as Liberal leader and high favourability with older voters, women, and those in Ontario. The Conservatives? They may have waited too long to pivot to some of the core trends and issues in the campaign to catch up.
All in all, the story of this election isn’t one of sudden twists or scandal-driven surges. It’s been a steady metronome, almost stubbornly so with the campaign defined by muted and subtle movement, despite an avalanche of announcements, platforms, and promises. And now, with time almost out, the question is whether the Conservatives can somehow flip the script - or if it’s already too late.
Debates and Platforms Unlikely to Shift Campaign
Both the leaders debates and platform releases came late in the campaign. The debates came and went last week with no real shake-up. Carney remained calm, unflappable. Poilievre needed a knockout, but didn’t land one. The NDP and Bloc? They were still largely stuck in the background.
Then came the platforms. Both the Liberals and Conservatives finally put their fiscal cards on the table - and neither was particularly game-changing.
The Conservative platform is classic fare: tax and spending cuts, promises to slash the federal deficit, with some heavy reliance on economic growth to fill in the blanks. Even with the cuts, there’s no path to a balanced budget, and deficits will still add around $100 billion to the debt over four years.
The Liberal platform? A headline-grabbing nearly $130 billion in new spending measures, including a tax cut to the lowest income tax bracket. When combined with existing spending, the Liberals are proposing to increase Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio to almost 43 per cent by 2027, straying from the projected decline under the Trudeau Liberals and the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s baseline.. But Carney’s pitch is simple: bold times require bold action - and he’s betting Canadians see this additional government spending as smart, not reckless.
Who’s Winning the Ground Game?
The biggest unknown right now is what the surge of 7.3 million Canadians who participated in advance voting over the long weekend means. The advance turnout is up 25 per cent from 2021, but no one knows who it helps, if anyone. It’s a sign of engagement, sure, but whether that’s Liberal enthusiasm or Conservative urgency is still anyone’s guess…or if Canadians just like the convenience of voting on a day they had off from work before election day.
What we do know is the Conservatives are running out of runway. If they hope to make this close, it’s all about getting out their vote, and having some surprising results in Ontario’s suburban ridings. The clock is ticking, and no late platform release or last-ditch rally is likely to change that.
The Road to a Majority Runs Through Quebec and Ontario
For the Liberals, the path is clear. Hold Ontario. Keep Quebec. Watch the Bloc fade. That’s the recipe for a majority, and right now, they’re well-positioned to cook. The Conservatives? They’ll need some upsets, and big showings from younger voters, to shift the race now.
Timing, as always, may decide everything. And with six days left, it’s looking more and more like the Liberals made the right bet just in the nick of time.
Latest Polls
Regions to Watch: Saskatchewan, seriously?
Regional Importance
Saskatchewan has formed a solid blue block since 2019, but with only 14 federal seats, even a Conservative Party of Canada sweep won’t secure a victory for Pierre Poilievre this election.
While it’s a conservative stronghold, electoral boundary changes and growing Liberal support in the province’s two biggest cities are making Saskatchewan a province to watch.
Key Electoral Trends
The Liberals and NDP have picked up seats here and there over the past decade, but there hasn’t been a stable presence since long time Liberal MP Ralph Goodale lost his Regina-Wascana seat in 2019.
As part of the 2022 electoral redistribution process, the boundaries of all 14 Saskatchewan ridings changed. Many are expected to stay conservative blue, but the redrawn riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is a toss up. The redistribution saw a significant portion of the conservative vote moved over to the new riding of Battlefords-Lloydminster-Meadow Lake, putting Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River in play for both the Liberals and NDP.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
President Donald Trump has taken centre stage this election, but it’s the tariffs imposed by China that are most damaging to Saskatchewan. In March, the province’s agriculture industry was hit with a 100 per cent import tariff on canola oil and meal. Earlier this month Premier Scott Moe said it’s the most urgent tariff impacting the province’s economy and whoever becomes Prime Minister must prioritize its removal.
By noon on Saturday, more than 1,000 people had voted at a single site in Saskatoon as part of advanced polls. Speaking with media, voters cited affordability, health care and the economy as top reasons they cast their ballot this election.
Recent Political Developments
April 28 will mark the third time in six months Saskatchewanians are heading to the polls after a provincial election in October and municipal one in November.
After the Saskatchewan NDP captured nearly all the seats in the province's cities, a recent poll shows rising support for the federal Liberals in Saskatoon and Regina. In the capital, 42 per cent of decided voters say they’re supporting the CPC, compared to the LPC’s 37 per cent. Saskatoon is nearly identical with 43 per cent for the Conservatives and 38 per cent for the Liberals.
While Poilievre has been focusing his attention further east, both Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh made campaign stops in Saskatoon. In 2015, the NDP picked up Saskatoon West and Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River. With the NDP hemorrhaging support to the Liberals this election, we’re watching both ridings closely to see if the LPC can break up the sea of blue.
In the Media
As we move into the final stretch of the campaign, New West partner Michael Solberg joined CBC's Power & Politics to share what he's watching for this week.
Key Dates
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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