𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: The Third Period Report - Debate Edition
It’s the third period, and the Liberals are holding a one-goal lead over the Conservatives, and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives certainly aren’t letting up in the final stretch. With the French leaders’ debate on Wednesday moved because of the Habs playing their win-and-get-in game 82, and the NHL playoffs set to begin tomorrow, we’d be remiss if we didn’t squeeze a hockey analogy into this post-debate edition of our Battle for the Ballots series.
In a lot of ways, this election has reminded us of the 2013 series between the Leafs and the Bruins, where the Bruins came back from a three-goal deficit in the third period to force the game into overtime (where the Bruins eventually secured the win). The Liberals have held a comfortable lead throughout the writ period, but with the final stretch of the campaign ahead. As they say, you play until you hear the whistle, and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives aren’t letting up. To keep their hopes of forming a government alive, they need to find that equalizing goal fast. Mark Carney’s Liberals will need to protect the crease better than James Reimer was able to do so for the Leafs if they want to secure one of the most stunning comebacks in Canadian political history.
French Debate Faceoff
The leaders’ debates – Wednesday evening in French and Thursday evening in English – were the last scheduled inflection points for Poilievre to move the needle in the election. The French-language debate was a chance for the leaders to demonstrate to la belle province (as well as Francophones across Canada) that they’re ready for the job. Pierre Poilievre delivered a clear, confident, and strong performance. He was disciplined and calm, similar to his Tout le monde en parle appearance earlier in the week. Consistency is key, and Poilievre was nothing if not consistent in his repeated attacks tying Carney to former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s legacy, as well as his focus on affordability, energy independence, and reducing bureaucracy.
Mark Carney entered the French debate with questions lingering over his language proficiency. He left the debate slightly worse for wear – but having survived. His French came across as understandable, though hesitant. He stumbled on more than one occasion, particularly when pressed by Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet. Several awkward moments, where Carney appeared to be searching for words, suggest he still struggles to communicate as fluently in French as his opponents. That said, he avoided any major gaffes – meaning Liberal supporters tuning in to validate their choice were likely reassured by his performance.
English Debate Power Play
Thursday night’s English-language debate may have had even more at stake than the previous evening’s. Poilievre, with the most on the line, looked shaky off the faceoff. He awkwardly agreed with Carney on negotiating with the United States from a position of strength, after Carney got the first opportunity to respond to moderator Steve Paikin’s question about tariffs and threats to Canada. It didn’t take long, however, for the longtime parliamentarian to find his stride – taking Carney to task on the Liberals’ record on housing, affordability, energy projects, and crime. Poilievre was at his best in direct exchanges with the Liberal leader.
In a moment that may have highlighted Carney’s political inexperience, the Liberal leader – searching for a gotcha moment – challenged Poilievre on his refusal to obtain a top-secret security clearance. Poilievre fired back, citing his previous clearance as a minister in the Harper government and arguing that accepting a top-secret briefing from the current government would effectively gag him in his role holding the Liberals to account. It was one of the few genuinely interesting exchanges between the two leaders.
Final Buzzer Recap
Carney, for his part, emerged from Thursday night’s debate still looking like the frontrunner. His occasional lack of political acuity was made up for by the confidence of a man who has twice served as a central banker in G7 countries. It may have helped that NDP leader Jagmeet Singh seemed more focused on disrupting Poilievre’s performance – frequently interrupting the Conservative leader and interjecting in exchanges with others on stage. There has been some speculation that this tactic was to ruin any clippable moments for the CPC that they may want to use in ads in the final days of the campaign. Singh, who may very well lose his own seat, appeared more than happy to play the role of attack dog, while Carney largely avoided getting drawn into the fray with Poilievre. Blanchet, meanwhile, had the least at stake in the English debate. While he occasionally struggled to find the right words, he made it clear that Bloc support in a minority Parliament would depend on “respect” for Quebec and collaboration on the party’s priorities.
An honourable mention goes to both the Green Party and the debate commission – neither of whom were on stage, but both of whom made headlines. The Green Party was originally invited to participate but was later disinvited after it was discovered the party hadn’t registered as many candidates with Elections Canada as it had claimed it intended to. It’s another setback for a party struggling to remain relevant in a shifting political landscape. The debate commission also came under fire, both for the last-minute disinvitation of the Green Party leader, and for accrediting Rebel Media and other affiliated alt-right outlets, as well as cancelling the post-English debate scrums. As a result, it would be a surprise to see the debate commission in its current form to survive going into the next federal election.
Neither Mark Carney nor Pierre Poilievre landed a decisive blow on the other, nor did either face enough pressure to make a critical mistake. Despite partisan claims of victory from both sides, the outcome was, in the end, largely a draw. Going back to our Game 7 analogy, we’ve got less than a minute to go in the third period, and the CPC are still facing a one goal deficit. The status quo continues to favour the frontrunner; and it’d take a lot of heroics from the Poilievre campaign to put a stop to Mark Carney walking back into the Prime Minister’s Office with a mandate from Canadians.
Latest Polls
The Liberals continue to lead almost all polls conducted by Canada’s most experienced public opinion researchers.
In the Media
As New West CEO Monte Solberg told CBC’s Eyeopener, the frontrunners need to be precise, but Singh and Blanchet are swinging freely - like players firing from centre ice. With E-Day around the corner, every hit or whiff could change the outcome. Check out Monte’s segment.
When it comes to Canadian unity, New West partner Matt Solberg told CTV’s Your Morning that momentum on energy infrastructure could help cool the temperature. As the federal race wraps, Albertans are watching closely - looking to Ottawa to match words with action and keep the urgency alive on pipelines. Catch Matt’s full segment below.
Key Dates
April 18-21, 2025: Advance Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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