𝘉𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘉𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘰𝘵𝘴: Leader’s Debate = One Last Chance
With two weeks left before election day, the race remains steady with almost all pollsters showing a stable Liberal lead. Time is running out for the Conservatives to gain ground with this week’s debates being pivotal to a comeback.
Canada’s 2025 federal election campaign has been a fairly stable race thus far. Despite the deluge of ads, policy rollouts, leader tours, and the occasional candidate gaffe, the polling numbers have barely budged. Before the campaign began, most pollsters were showing a Liberal lead strong enough to give them a majority government, and with two weeks to go, that’s still what the numbers show.
A four-to-six-point national advantage for the Liberals may not sound commanding but in first-past-the-post, especially with strong showings in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, it looks like the makings of a majority for Mark Carney. Even in the one poll showing a small lead for the Conservatives, the regional breakdowns would again favour a Liberal victory.
In short: nothing is moving the needle.
Not yet, anyway.
This week’s leaders’ debates – Wednesday in French and Thursday in English - are the final scheduled inflection points before Canadians start casting their ballots (advance voting starts this Friday). For Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, they represent the last, best (and maybe only) opportunity to shake up the race.
But let’s be honest: don’t hold your breath that the debates will fundamentally reshape the race. Debates certainly can change a race, but more often than not – they fail to shift votes in a major way.
Canadian election debates tend to be more theatre than turning point. With five leaders sharing the stage, zingers can get lost, attacks can fall flat, and all this clutter often favours the status quo. Still, for the Conservatives - trailing in the regions that matter most, especially the suburbs of Ontario -the pressure is on. Time is running out to alter the trajectory of this campaign, and the math isn’t on their side.
So, what’s the strategy?
For Poilievre, the goal is simple but steep: deliver a knockout blow that redefines Mark Carney in the public’s mind. So far, attempts to drag down Carney’s high favourables haven’t worked and have often reminding Canadians of his résumé more than raising doubts about his judgment. That dynamic needs to change on the debate stage - without coming off as mean-spirited or desperate.
Carney, for his part, just needs to stay upright. If he emerges from these debates unscathed, the path to a majority becomes more clear. The opposition’s window to make a dent in his image is closing, and if they can’t land a punch this week, they likely won’t land one at all.
Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois are fighting their own battles for relevance. But as the campaign narrative continues to consolidate into a Carney vs. Poilievre contest, their voices risk being background noise.
The ballot question may have already been answered but if there’s going to be a twist in the plot, it will come under the bright lights of the debate stage.
Stay tuned but maybe don’t bet the house.
Latest Polls
The Liberals continue to lead almost all polls conducted by Canada’s most experienced public opinion researchers.
Regions to Watch: La Belle Battleground (Quebec)
Key Electoral Trends
Quebec is shaking up the federal election map and fast. In Montreal, the city’s old red-vs-teal dynamic is cracking with every party now fighting for relevance. The Liberals have jumped to 39% in the province, pulling ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 26% and the Conservatives at 23%. Some projections show a handful of Quebec seats could swing by margins under 2%.
Regional Importance
Outside the urban core, it’s the suburbs and regions that could decide the outcome. In Quebec City, ridings like Beauport–Limoilou and Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles are no longer safe Conservative bets. LaSalle–Émard–Verdun is shaping up to be a three-way rematch between the Bloc, Liberals (now running former controversial IBM exec Claude Guay), and the NDP. In Beloeil—Chambly, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet is defending his own turf while battling sagging party numbers. NDP incumbent Alexandre Boulerice is in a fierce battle to defend his party’s last remaining seat in Quebec in the riding of Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie. And in the Eastern Townships, Sherbrooke and Brome–Missisquoi are heating up fast as Bloc support softens and Liberal challengers close the gap with border issues being a top concern.
Key Electoral Trends
Quebec is shaking up the federal election map and fast. In Montreal, the city’s old red-vs-teal dynamic is cracking with every party now fighting for relevance. The Liberals have jumped to 39% in the province, pulling ahead of the Bloc Québécois at 26% and the Conservatives at 23%. Some projections show a handful of Quebec seats could swing by margins under 2%.
Economic Backdrop and Policy Tensions
The usual Quebec trio of economic stability, healthcare, and autonomy are the policy forces at play. However, the stakes feel higher this time. The Liberals are doubling down on infrastructure and affordability. The Bloc is tapping into nationalist sentiment with sharp messaging on identity and language. And the Conservatives are working the regions with promises of fiscal restraint and a leaner federal government. Meanwhile, global currents like U.S. trade and economic uncertainty are helping drive the ballot box question back to leadership and stability.
Recent Political Developments
Quebec is really “la belle battleground” this election, and with 78 total seats up for grabs, it serves as a key area of focus for the Liberals on their quest to form a majority government. With the Liberals riding a wave of momentum under Mark Carney, they have been turning the province into a launchpad for a possible comeback. Meanwhile, the Bloc’s grip is slipping as identity politics take a backseat to pocketbook pressures. The NDP have a fierce fight on their hands to keep their only seat while the Conservatives watch their Quebec City turf turn shaky.
In the Media
The federal campaigns touched down in Alberta last week to mixed reception. Speaking with CBC’s Eyeopener, New West CEO Monte Solberg weighed in on Mark Carney’s Calgary stop, and how the Liberal leader’s reluctance to answer tough questions might play with voters in Canada’s energy capital.
New West partner Michael Solberg joined the CBC’s Power & Politics to unpack the third week of the campaign and what he’s watching for during the debates.
Michael also joined the West of Centre podcast to talk about crowd sizes, which Alberta ridings are in play, and why this election is unlike any other.
Key Dates
April 16, 2025: French Debate
April 17, 2025: English Debate
April 18-21, 2025: Advance Polling
April 28, 2025: Election Day
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