The Weekly Roundup - November 28, 2024
What does Donald Trump’s victory mean for Canada? That’s the question policy makers, business leaders and community organizers are asking in Ottawa and across Canada. While votes are still being counted, what is clear is that Americans voted to hand the White House, the Senate, and very likely the House of Representatives to the Republicans.
President-elect Trump and his team now need to figure out how they intend to turn promise into policy. Top of mind for Canadians will be commitments around trade, immigration, and national defence. As a candidate, Trump promised to implement a 60 per cent tariff on goods made in China, and a 10 per cent tariff on goods imported from all other countries, including Canada. Modeling by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggests the impact of such a tariff could be more than a five-percentage point decline in Canada’s GDP. It’s no wonder then that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Premier Doug Ford, Premier Danielle Smith, and others have been quick to highlight the strong economic ties between Canada and the United States and between provinces and states.
The readout of Prime Minister Trudeau’s call with President-elect Trump indicates the two discussed the successfully negotiated Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, which was negotiated during Trump’s first term, and will be up for review and renegotiation in 2025 and 2026. For his part, Premier Ford’s congratulation to Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance highlighted the fact that Ontario is the number one export destination for 17 U.S. States, and the number two destination for 11 more. Premier Ford is betting big on a “buy Can-Am” mindset that benefits the economies on both sides of the border. Premier Smith highlighted that Alberta is a critical part of North American energy security as the single largest supplier of crude oil and natural gas in the United States – providing twice as much as Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq combined. She went on to say that she is looking forward to “reinforcing Alberta's ties in the United States and working together with the new administration on this partnership.”
Trudeau’s cabinet rushed to reassure Canadians concerned about the outcome with Minister Chrystia Freeland saying, “Canada will be absolutely fine.” Minister François-Philippe Champagne urged calm, while Minister Mélanie Joly said the government is ready with a plan. On Thursday, the Prime Minister’s Office announced the revival of a special cabinet committee dedicated to Canada-U.S. Relations, which would be chaired by Minister Freeland, with Minister Dominic LeBlanc as Vice-Chair. The Committee will also include Treasury Board President Anita Anand, Defence Minister Bill Blair, Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay, Immigration Minister Marc Miller, International Trade Minister Mary Ng, Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan, and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.
When it comes to immigration, Minister Joly said Canda will stand firm on its plan to reduce the number of newcomers entering the country, while the RCMP has prepared contingency plans in case of an influx of migrants from the United States. Trump’s campaign promised action to restrict asylum and to deport undocumented migrants living in the United States.
Meanwhile, defence spending is likely to be another point of contention between Canada and the new Trump administration. Defence Minister Bill Blair has suggested that Canada will reach its two per cent of GDP NATO spending target by 2032, while former U.S. Ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft believesthat’s “not good enough.”
Top Federal Stories
The federal government released long-awaited draft regulations that would impose a greenhouse gas emission cap on the oil and gas sector at a rate 35 per cent below 2019 levels. Reaction from the Alberta government was swift (more on that below), while other organizations like the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Business Council of Alberta, and Clean Prosperity also spoke out against the draft regulations.
Following the announcement that he will axe the federal sales tax on new homes sold for under $1 million, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has written to the provinces’ premiers asking them to eliminate their own portion of sales tax on new homes sold for under $1 million. Poilievre has promised that he would cut the Liberal government’s Housing Accelerator Fund (HAF) to help pay for his commitment, a move that several Greater Toronto Area mayors are now asking federal housing minister Sean Fraser to help them avoid. Mississauga Mayor Carolyn Parrish, supported by the mayors of Ajax, Whitby, Richmond Hill, and Burlington are asking the federal government to flow the funds for the Housing Accelerator Fund before a Conservative government would have an opportunity to cut it. Minister Fraser’s office is pushing back on the suggestion, in part because the HAF is meant to roll out in tranches to ensure cities reach agreed upon housing targets. The housing minister also opened applications for the $1 billion Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund this week. The fund is meant to build or improve infrastructure to support drinking water, wastewater, stormwater, and solid waste to support the construction of more homes. Poilievre has also promised to cut that program.
A Bloc Québécois bill, meant to protect supply managed industries, is facingmajor hurdles in the Senate. The bill seeks to protect Canada’s supply management system during international trade negotiations. The proposed BQ legislation is facing amendments in the Senate that would exempt existing trade deals such as the Canada-U.S. Mexico Agreement from the legislation, meaning that a renegotiated CUSMA could see Canada made concessions on supply management. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet accused Senators of betraying Canadians and serving the best interest of Americans, Europeans and South Americans.
Top Alberta Stories
The members have spoken and it’s a resounding thumbs up for Alberta Premier and United Conservative Party (UCP) leader, Danielle Smith. Over the weekend, UCP delegates gathered in Red Deer for an Annual General Meeting and review of Premier Smith’s leadership. More than 4,600 ballots were cast with UCP Leader Danielle Smith receiving 91.5 per cent support for her leadership. It’s a vote of confidence that confirms party members agree with the direction she has taken the province since becoming leader two years ago.
It was immediately back to business on Monday for the Premier who issued a joint statement with Environment and Protected Areas Minister Rebecca Schulz and Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean about the federal government's oil and gas emissions cap. Smith exchanged strong words with Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault after he said in a news conference that it was more hot air and disinformation on the part of the conservative movement in Canada. In turn, Premier Smith shared hard numbers on the cost of the tax and accused the federal minister of having a deranged vendetta against Alberta.
A day later, the Premier spoke at the Rural Municipalities of Alberta (RMA) 2024 Fall Convention and again aimed at the federal government during her keynote speech. The audience applauded as she talked about fighting the federal carbon tax. She then answered questions from the audience of municipal leaders, fielding everything from the province’s policing plans to the cost of electricity.
The following day, Premier Smith left the country traveling to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to promote Alberta’s energy sector and attend the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference. A cohort of Alberta Government Ministers took the stage at the RMA convention with Municipal Affairs Minister Ric McIver and Energy and Minerals Minister Brian Jean in the hot seat over property taxes oil and gas companies owe. The issue was raised earlier this year when the RMA said companies are profiting from Alberta’s resources while ignoring their community obligations. Minister McIver told delegates Wednesday that the government has been looking to get a list of companies that haven’t paid up since September when Minister Jean sent letters to municipalities outlining the information the government needed. Rural Municipalities of Alberta president Paul McLauchlin is skeptical of the approach saying the name submission process comes with conditions and that he and other rural officials aren’t confident there will be enforcement.
The work week ended with a bang when the entire board of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo) was fired, and the Deputy Minister of Executive Council Ray Gilmour was announced as the interim CEO. Paul Wynnyk will serve as Acting Deputy Minister and Clerk of Executive Council and Acting Secretary to Cabinet. In a news release Thursday, the government laid out the increases in operating costs, management fees and staffing AIMCo has experienced, without a corresponding increase to return on investment. This is the third board the UCP has dissolved since forming government, replacing the Alberta Health Services board and cleaning house at the Alberta Energy Regulator.
Premier Smith returns to Alberta from the UAE on Sunday and, with the leadership vote behind her, is expected to set a date for the byelection in Lethbridge-West. UCP candidate John Middleton-Hope, a former police officer and Lethbridge police chief who now sits on the city’s council, will face off against Alberta NDP candidate Rob Miyashiro, a former two-term Lethbridge city councillor and seniors advocate. The race will replace NDP MLA and former Minister Shannon Phillips who departed the Legislature on July 1. This will be a litmus test for the NDP under the leadership of former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi who took over as leader in June. The seat has been a battleground before, with Phillips winning by only a couple hundred votes in 2019 and losing by just over 1,000 votes in 2012.
Top Ontario Stories
Ahead of Remembrance Day, the Ontario government is rolling out several new policies aimed at Canadian veterans. On Wednesday, the Ontario government announced that active duty and retired members of the Canadian Armed Forces would be able to ride GO Transit for free, starting March 2025, with plans to extend the program to the UP Express. The rollout didn’t go as smoothly as planned, with reaction from CAF Reservists questioning why they had been excluded from the initiative. The Ontario government quickly moved to confirm that Canadian Armed Forces veterans, active-duty members, and reservists would be included in the fare-relief measure. This week the Ford government also announced $3 million, over three years, to support Canadian Armed Forces members as they transition out of the forces. The funds are being directed to the non-profit organization Helmets to Hardhats, to help Canadian Armed Forces members and veterans train for construction jobs.
MPP’s from all parties agreed to extend the per-vote subsidy for parties, that was set to be eliminated on December 31, to the end of 2026. The per-vote subsidy is set at $0.636 per vote. The governing Progressive Conservatives receive about $1.2 million, the Liberals $714,000, the New Democrats $710,000, based on the results of the 2022 election. The extension of the per-vote subsidy comes amidst speculation of a potential election in Spring 2025, meaning the parties would continue to receive the allowance based on the results of the next election.
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