2024 Year in Review
As the year comes to a close, Parliament in Ottawa is adjourned, legislatures across the country are quiet, and many Canadians are busy taking advantage of the GST tax holiday for last-minute Christmas shopping. Thank you for continuing to follow the insights from the team at New West Public Affairs. We look forward to providing the analysis and advice you need to navigate what promises to be another eventful year in 2025.
Before turning to what lies ahead, let’s reflect on the successes, challenges, and trends that shaped 2024.
Top Federal Stories
Donald Trump and Canada-U.S. Relations
Perhaps the most consequential event for Canada occurred south of the border: Donald Trump’s re-election and the Republican Party’s consolidation of power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The incoming Trump administration has already flagged trade, defence, immigration, and border security as key priorities, and these will inevitably shape Canada-U.S. relations.
Among the immediate challenges is Trump’s promise to impose sweeping 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods as leverage to address the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, and illegal immigration. Such tariffs could have far-reaching consequences, as Canada is a top trade destination for the U.S. and supplies more than 50% of its crude oil imports.
Defence spending has also emerged as a flashpoint. Canada’s long-standing failure to meet NATO’s benchmark of spending 2% of GDP on defence has irked successive U.S. administrations. Under Trump, pressure on Canada to accelerate defence investments could intensify, especially given growing global security threats.
To navigate these turbulent waters, Trudeau and Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc met with Trump at Mar-A-Lago earlier in December. However, Ottawa’s efforts have been complicated by internal Liberal challenges, including Chrystia Freeland’s abrupt resignation as finance minister just hours before presenting the 2024 Fall Economic Statement. Freeland had been a key player in navigating Canada-U.S. relations, leaving a significant gap in the federal government’s strategy.
In this void, provincial leaders like Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith have stepped up, with Premiers across the political spectrum united in the need for a coordinated approach. Ontario launched a multimillion-dollar ad campaign across the U.S. to highlight economic and cultural ties, while Ford has also emphasized the importance of cross-border trade.
Premier Smith has adopted her own proactive stance, positioning Alberta as a critical ally for energy security, and proposing enhanced border security measures, including a dedicated patrol team and new law enforcement powers to address illegal activities along Alberta’s southern border.
Pierre Poilievre: Prime Minister in Waiting
In 2024, Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives captured public attention with their straightforward message: “Axe the tax. Build the homes. Fix the budget. Stop the crime.” His party maintained a commanding lead in national polls, and a string of byelection victories underscored growing Liberal vulnerabilities. Notable wins included flipping Toronto-St. Paul’s, a seat held by Liberal cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett since 1997.
A key driver of Poilievre’s momentum has been the Conservatives’ robust fundraising machine, which raised $29 million by Q3—nearly three times the Liberals’ $10.2 million and far outpacing the NDP’s $3.9 million. This financial advantage has allowed the Conservatives to outspend their rivals in targeted advertising, further consolidating their support among Canadians.
Poilievre has also redefined political engagement with corporate Canada, criticizing businesses for “sucking up” to the Liberals instead of advocating for their interests. His message is clear: to influence a Poilievre-led government, businesses must align their priorities with those of the Canadian public.
Justin Trudeau’s Leadership
Prime Minister Trudeau faced the most serious challenge to his leadership in 2024. Liberal byelection losses and a focus on soundbites over substance and the same lines about the threat of the CPC have begun to fall on deaf ears after a decade in power, amplifying calls for change within the party. In a bid to stabilize his government, Trudeau announced a significant cabinet shuffle in December, bringing in eight new ministers and reassigning the roles of four others. Notable appointments included Rachel Bendayan as Minister of Official Languages, David McGuinty as Minister of Public Safety, and Nathaniel Erskine-Smith as Minister of Housing, Infrastructure, and Communities.
Despite these efforts, Trudeau’s position remains precarious. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has amplified criticism of the Liberals, declaring that his party would vote to bring down the government, asserting, “the Liberals don’t deserve another chance.” However, Singh’s actions remain under scrutiny, as the NDP has supported the Liberals in numerous confidence votes throughout the fall. Since September, Singh has voted with the Liberals on eight occasions despite claiming to have “torn up” the NDP’s supply-and-confidence agreement.
Singh’s latest letter emphasizes his intent to introduce a motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of Parliament, but his lack of clarity on timing has raised questions about the NDP’s resolve. Critics have pointed to Singh’s hypothetical scenarios—such as prioritizing retaliatory tariffs against Trump’s proposed measures—as potential excuses for further delaying action against the Liberals. This ambiguity has drawn accusations that Singh is more interested in leveraging the situation for political advantage than triggering an election.
Adding to the uncertainty, the government has several procedural tools to delay confidence votes, including proroguing Parliament. These tactics could provide the Liberals time to negotiate a new deal with the NDP, further extending their minority government.
The NDP’s internal dynamics and Singh’s repeated hesitations are reflective of the broader political instability surrounding Trudeau’s leadership as the government enters 2025.
A Year of Provincial Elections
Provincial elections in 2024 brought significant shifts to Canada’s political landscape.
British Columbia: Premier David Eby’s NDP secured another majority government in a close race. The collapse of the BC United party and the rise of the BC Conservatives reshaped the opposition, underscoring voters’ demands for action on crime and support for mental health and addictions.
Saskatchewan: Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party won its fifth consecutive majority, but urban voters sent a clear message. The NDP swept Regina’s 12 ridings and took 12 of 14 Saskatoon seats, unseating five cabinet ministers and highlighting the need for the Saskatchewan Party to reevaluate their playbook.
New Brunswick: Blaine Higgs’ Progressive Conservatives were decisively ousted by Susan Holt’s Liberals. Higgs lost his own seat, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with his government. Holt’s victory under the Liberal banner included careful distancing from the federal Trudeau’s Liberal brand.
Nova Scotia: Premier Tim Houston’s gamble on an early election paid off, with his Progressive Conservatives achieving a historic majority. The collapse of the provincial Liberals allowed the NDP to become the official opposition, marking a significant political realignment.
Top Alberta Stories of 2024
A Tale of Two Leaders
To say Premier Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi won their respective leadership contests would be an understatement. Both leaders saw a landslide of support, but what they did with that support is where the two differ.
Former three-term Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi entered the race to replace Rachel Notley as the leader of the NDP and the party saw incredible growth. Before the leadership race began the Alberta NDP had 16,224 members, by the end eligible voting members grew to 85,227. Nenshi won on the first ballot with 86 per cent and was expected to continue gaining ground, but as the year comes to a close, that’s yet to materialize.
Premier Danielle Smith had her work cut out for her in the lead up to her leadership review. She’s the seventh Alberta premier in 18 years, as both the previous PC party and present day UCP have a history of turning on their leader. The time she spent with party faithful paid off at the UCP AGM in November where she received 91.5 per cent support for her leadership. It was a vote of confidence in the direction she has taken the province since taking the helm two years ago.
It's not quite the worst of times for the Alberta NDP. Lethbridge-West remains orange after a hard-fought byelection, but as you’ll see in the following sections, the best of times may still be to come for a Premier with a lot of momentum.
Restructuring Critical Systems
If putting together a jigsaw puzzle is one of your Christmas traditions, you’ll appreciate the time, effort, and problem-solving it takes to go from 1,000 little pieces to a complete picture. When it comes to some of Alberta’s biggest systems, the Province started the jigsaw puzzle of a lifetime this year.
Alberta Health Services became Canada’s first and largest provincewide, integrated health system when the Province dissolved its regional health authority system in 2008. Last year work began to dismantle that system and this year, the Premier and Health Minister started fitting the pieces together under the four pillars of mental health and addiction, acute care, primary care, and continuing care.
Another sweeping series of changes is underway in Alberta’s electricity sector. Everything from market design and surveillance to the regulations governing renewables, default utility rates and transmission have been the subject of major reform driven by the Premier’s Office, with more changes coming in 2025. A trial balloon floated by Premier Smith on the potential creation of a new crown corporation to connect these reforms with the Alberta’s assertion of energy, resource and environmental policy sovereignty over federal interference has yet to land. An emerging AI data centre strategy to leverage Alberta’s natural gas power advantage saw a boost in early December with a Kevin O’Leary proposal to build the world’s largest AI centre industrial park near Grande Prairie.
While the Premier tests the waters on a new electricity crown, she’s framed her government’s auto insurance reforms as essential to avoiding public insurance by default. During a November news conference, she referenced two insurance companies leaving the province and said should that continue, the end result would be a public insurer. The controversial reforms include moving to a no-fault model and increasing the cap on rate hikes for good drivers.
Last, but certainly not least in terms of widescale restructuring, is the surprise political intervention into the management of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The Smith government abruptly dismissed the board and executive team of Canada’s sixth largest pension fund manager in November, appointing former Prime Minister Stephen Harper the new chair. Government has denied any connection to the Premier’s campaign to pull Alberta out of the Canadian Pension Plan CPP.
Change at this scale takes more than a mandate to complete so we are watching closely to see how the puzzle pieces come together and what picture Premier Smith presents to voters leading into the 2027 election.
Levels of Government at Odds
Middle children are sometimes characterized as the rebellious ones in a family, ready to push the boundaries and make their presence known. Situated between the federal and municipal levels of government, the provincial government played that part in 2024, grabbing headlines and passing policies aimed at the other orders.
From the Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act motion to fight back against the federal oil and gas emissions cap to the Provincial Priorities Act, which requires provincial entities to obtain prior approval from the Alberta government before entering into, amending, extending or renewing an agreement with the federal government, Premier Smith made her presence known this year.
In March, Alberta had more than a dozen active or proposed legal challenges against the federal government. The end of the year saw Alberta preparing another one, when the final version of the federal government’s updated clean electricity regulations were published. Despite chalking up a major win on the new date to fully decarbonize electricity grids being pushed back from 2035 to 2050, Alberta will again challenge the constitutionality of federal jurisdiction.
Premier Smith also didn’t blink when she faced criticism from Alberta municipalities after her government introduced the Municipal Affairs Statutes Amendment Act. The legislation bans voting tabulators, allows municipal political parties, makes it easier for the province to overrule local bylaws, and start a recall of councillors and mayors. The legislation also amended the Local Authorities Election Act to allow for corporate and union donations.
A push and pull is also taking place between the Province and individual municipalities. For example, the City of Calgary and Alberta government have been going back-and-forth on the Green Line LRT project that stalled out multiple times this year, as the two levels couldn’t come to an agreement on the alignment.
With a federal government looking shakier by the day and municipal elections set for the fall of 2025, there’s likely to be a lot more family drama between the levels of government next year and the Province will have plenty of elbow room to drive its agenda.
Extreme Weather
Albertans take pride in resilience, and that quality was put to the test again this year. Our province saw eight all-time cold weather records broken at the start of the year. On January 11, Alberta set a provincial record for power demand and two days later an emergency alert was issued, urging residents to reduce consumption to avoid blackouts.
Then an exceptionally hot and dry July in Jasper National Park led to an intense wildfire that claimed 358 of the town’s 1,113 structures, including the iconic Maligne Lodge. According to Catastrophe Indices and Quantification Inc (CatIQ), insured losses from the fire reached $880 million, making it the second-costliest wildfire disaster in Canadian history.
In August, a severe hailstorm hit Calgary causing $2.8 billion in insured losses. It was the costliest weather event in Canada this year and the second-costliest overall in Canadian history.
The frequency of extreme weather events in Alberta led to legislation, passed in June, that pushes the fixed election date back from the last Monday in May to the third Monday in October. Budget 2024 also saw $2 billion set aside for natural disasters.
From work hours lost to emergency assistance costs and increased insurance, these severe weather events leave lasting damage to Alberta communities, the province’s finances, and the local economy.
Top Ontario Stories of 2024
Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives closed 2024 with a commanding lead in opinion polls, positioning them for a potential spring election. Ford’s PCs hold 43% support compared to the Liberals’ 25%, the NDP’s 21%, and the Greens’ 6%, suggesting a third majority government is well within reach.
Ford’s government has focused on delivering its legislative agenda, including fast-tracking infrastructure projects, accelerating environmental assessments, enabling faster land expropriation, and banning new highway tolls. They also are locking in on solutions to reduce gridlock, including allowing 24/7 construction on priority projects and requiring provincial approval for new bike lanes. The Ford government has also introduced lifetime license suspensions for impaired driving causing death, and tougher measures against auto theft.
On the energy file, Ontario advanced its Affordable Energy Act, prioritizing nuclear power, expanding EV charging infrastructure, and cutting red tape for energy connections. The province also launched a 5,000 MW procurement initiative to meet growing energy demands.
Opposition parties are struggling to keep pace. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals have rolled out proposed tax cuts and housing affordability measures, but Ford’s PCs have successfully framed her as the “queen of the carbon tax.” Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP, under Marit Stiles, continues to lag in both fundraising and public support.
Finally, when it comes to the province’s books, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy released a Fall Economic Statement that acknowledges continued uncertain global economic conditions. The regular refrain from the finance minister is that the province is taking a “responsible and targeted approach” to its spending habits, which he insists will allow the province to balance the budget by 2026-27.
Trump’s proposed tariffs may give Ford additional political momentum. His vocal criticism of U.S. trade policies and assertive media campaign have positioned him as a defender of Canadian interests, a narrative that could resonate with voters ahead of an early election.
That's a wrap on 2024 - stay tuned in early 2025 for our lookahead on the year that's to come. Wishing you and your loved ones a safe and restful break.
