The Debrief: UCP Leadership Debate
The first United Conservative Party 2022 Leadership Debate took place last night in Medicine Hat. Conventional wisdom says that debates in politics seldom matter, but this debate was revealing. It was also consequential in a race that will be decided by preferential ballot. Candidates who are unfamiliar to voters can only help themselves on a preferential ballot if they perform well in debates
Of the seven candidates only two are relatively well known, Danielle Smith and Brian Jean, both former Wildrose Party leaders. Three lesser-known candidates probably made a first impression on that provincewide audience of UCP voters-Rebecca Schulz, Travis Toews, and Rajan Sawhney. Their names, faces, and social media personalities would have already been familiar to UCP members, but last night was their debut in unscripted debate and the debate was sharp-edged. All candidates drew personality, policy and philosophical distinctions between themselves and the others, especially between themselves and the frontrunner, Danielle Smith.
Predictably they attacked Ms. Smith for her proposed, Alberta Sovereignty Act. They saw it as ‘risky’. It was an ‘illusion’. It is no ‘magic wand’ to cure Alberta’s complaints about confederation. It would drive away investment to the province by creating uncertainty. Danielle Smith was game for all of this. She is nothing if not cheery and knowledgeable in defending her ideas, which tends to bring down the temperature. The most pointed attacks against her were for her eccentric views on the preventability of cancer. On this matter at least she back peddled and apologized. Her sharpest critic was probably Rajan Sawhney, the former transportation minister. Ms. Sawhney was perhaps the least known of the candidates and therefore expectations were low. She impressed. She was forceful, articulate, and well-briefed on the constitution, healthcare, energy, the environment, and the economy. She was not intimidated in taking on the far more experienced Danielle Smith. Last night she stepped out from Premier Kenney’s shadow and introduced herself as someone to be reckoned with.
Rebecca Schulz had a good night last night. She was already a rising star in the United Conservative Party and in the last year was used often as a UCP spokesperson. Last night she demonstrated her mettle in sparring with Danielle Smith, both on cancer care and on the Alberta Sovereignty Act. She was forceful and knowledgeable. She repositioned herself as someone who is more than just a competent and caring minister. She showed toughness and broad knowledge of the issues that effective leaders must have. Her strong performance and general likeability suggests she is positioned to do well on a preferential ballot.
Former finance minister Travis Toews had almost no social media presence before the UCP leadership race. He was seldom in the news outside of his official duties on finance issues, and even then, was low key. So, again this was an introduction for Mr. Toews and he generally did well though he wasn’t spectacular. He was articulate and obviously had a command of the finance files. He emphasized his record as finance minister though Danielle Smith and Brian Jean suggested he mostly just got lucky. If anything set him apart from other candidates, it was his significant private-sector experience. He came across as competent and trustworthy if not flashy.
Brian Jean was low key through much of the debate but showed his experience in the last half hour. He was comfortable, jocular, and likeable as he sparred with Travis Toews. He was understated. His message seemed to be that you can get from him much of what you can get from Danielle Smith but without the impulsiveness. That said, it’s hard to see how that will resonate with former Wildrose supporters in an environment where most pound the table for a steady diet of red meat. It seems likely however that he could be the second choice of many Danielle Smith supporters, which could position him for a second ballot win.
Danielle Smith was a target last night. Her opponents made strong arguments that she is a risky choice for UCP voters and that her judgment is questionable. It is also unlikely that her supporters were at all dissuaded though it may give undecided voters pause. Danielle Smith is energetic and charismatic even as she apologizes. She is also a riddle. She spoke with enthusiasm and knowledge about healthcare, the constitution, the economy and, enigmatically, about how Alberta can prosper by throwing itself headlong into the challenges around decarbonization and net-zero- something both critics and supporters were surprised to hear.