The Weekly Roundup - September 16, 2024

With the House of Commons back, we’re welcoming you to the Monday edition of the Roundup with our latest insights to help you navigate the political landscape with confidence.

Parliamentarians returned to Ottawa for the first time since the House adjourned for the summer recess back in June. The new sitting brings with it a new political reality for the parties to navigate. Chief among the changes is the end of the supply-and-confidence agreement between the Liberals and the NDP which had guaranteed New Democrat support for the Liberal government on confidence votes in exchange for several NDP priorities. There’s been no love lost between the two former parliamentary coalition partners since NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced the end of the agreement. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took a swipe at Singh, accusing the NDP of “playing politics” and “walking away from progressive values.”
 
Without being able to rely on the support of the NDP, the Liberals are looking to other parties in Parliament to help move along their legislative agenda which includes the online harms bill, pharmacare legislation, and Canada Elections Act amendments which weren’t passed before the summer adjournment. They might just find a dance partner with the Bloc Québécois, given leader Yves-François Blanchet has indicated a willingness to do business in exchange for a suite of demands that benefit Quebec.
 
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre meanwhile, says his party will force a confidence vote at the first opportunity they get. The Liberals for their part say they’re ready to test the confidence of the House. Government House Leader Karina Gould told the Star that the government doesn’t intend to play games to avoid any confidence votes that may come up.
 
Polls show voters are divided on whether Canadians want an early election. An Ipsos poll found 56 per cent of Canadians surveyed don't want that election just yet, saying they want all parties to try and work with the government on a case-by-case basis. Leger, meanwhile found approximately one third of Canadians want an election this fall, while another third of Canadians would like the election to be in October 2025 as planned. The polls also show the Conservatives have maintained their sizable lead over the summer. The same Leger poll pegs the Conservatives’ support at 45 per cent nationally, while an Abacus poll released over the weekend has the Conservatives at 43 per cent, a 21-percentage point lead over the Liberals at 22 per cent. The NDP and Bloc’s support is 18 per cent and eight per cent, respectively.

New West in the News
Previewing what to expect during the fall sitting and setting the stage on potential timing for a Federal election, watch New West Partner Michael Solberg join CTV News Regina.
 
Here are the other stories that are making waves this week:

Top Federal Stories
In addition to the House returning Monday, we will also be watching the results of two byelections happening today. In LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, the governing Liberals will be trying to hold onto former Justice Minister David Lametti’s seat, fending off strong challenges from both the Bloc and the NDP. Meanwhile in Elmwood-Transcona, the NDP are in a battle against the Conservatives to hold onto former MP Daniel Blaikie’s seat, which has been held by the NDP for most of the riding’s 36 year history.
 
Travellers will be breathing a sigh of relief following a tentative agreement between Air Canada and the union representing the airline’s pilots. The potential for a strike loomed large over the return of Parliament as a potential flashpoint between the governing Liberals, the NDP holding firm on their labour creds, and the Conservatives looking for an opportunity to appeal to workers. While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said that the government would not intervene to end the dispute, Poilievre also threw his support behind the airline pilots, saying they were “right to fight for a fair deal.”
 
The provinces were quick to pour cold water on federal immigration minister Marc Miller’s proposal to relocate thousands of asylum seekers across Canada. The federal government has been under pressure from Ontario and Quebec to help relieve pressure that an influx of asylum seekers has put on provincial services. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is telling the federal government to back off and respect the province’s plans. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith also announced her government’s opposition to the federal proposal, saying “excessive levels of immigration to this province are increasing the cost of living.” Even the Liberal Premier in Newfoundland and Labrador, Andrew Furey cautioned that his province was “happy to do its part”, but that would be just under 200 asylum seekers, not thousands.

Top Alberta Stories
Premier Smith will deliver a televised address to the province tomorrow at 6:50 p.m. A post on X stated that she’ll discuss the government’s plan to support Alberta families. Her last address to Albertans took place in February, which was used as a communications exercise to frame what to expect in the following week’s provincial budget. Her address tomorrow, in a similar vein, is a chance for Smith to connect with Albertans to set the stage for the fall, including touching on the anticipated accelerated personal tax cut, and addressing “acute” overcrowding in Alberta schools.  You can watch her address on Global News, CTV, and online.

Alberta NDP Leader, Naheed Nenshi, is shoring up his leadership team and shadow cabinet before the legislature resumes sitting on October 28. He announced a lineup of shadow ministers and caucus leadership positions, as well as a new leadership advisory team. The shakeup reduces the number of critics and aligns the positions with the UCP government’s ministerial portfolios rather than issues the NDP was focused on. When the House returns next month, Christina Gray will act as leader of the Official Opposition and opposition house leader until Nenshi secures a seat in the legislature.

British Columbia Election 
The writs in British Columbia will be drawn up this week as the election is scheduled to be called on Saturday, September 21. The campaign has been unofficially underway for weeks, with both the NDP and Conservative Party laying out their platforms. The difference in vision between the two parties narrowed last week. Yesterday the Province launched mandatory care for people with brain injury, mental illness, and severe addiction. Days earlier, Conservative Party Leader John Rustad announced his support for involuntary treatment for those suffering from severe addictions.

Eby also took observers and his Caucus by surprise when he made a major announcement during an event with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew. The pair spoke about their shared commitment to reproductive health, but the focus quickly changed when Eby said he would scrap B.C.’s consumer carbon tax, if the federal government removes its backstop.

Of course, this election will look very different from the three-party race that was anticipated just last month. Vote splitting that would have occurred between BC United and the Conservative party will no longer be a consideration in battleground ridings.

The B.C. provincial general election is scheduled for October 19.

Saskatchewan Election
Saskatchewan's provincial election campaign has not officially started, but both the Saskatchewan Party led government and the NDP opposition are making key announcements. The NDP is focusing on a plan to create a province-wide student meal program, while the government highlights the graduate retention program.

The election must be called between September 24 and October 1, with the voting day set for October 28. Candidates can begin campaigning before the writ is issued, provided they follow specific registration and financial reporting rules.

Top Ontario Stories
The Progressive Conservative Party in Ontario is ramping up its election readiness in anticipation that Premier Ford could call an early election next spring. Two longtime Progressive Conservative Members of Provincial Parliament announced they won’t be seeking re-election, clearing the way for new candidates to be nominated. Nepean MPP Lisa MacLeod announced she won’t be seeking re-election the next time the province goes to the ballot box. Premier Ford thanked the long-time MPP for her almost two decades of service at Queen’s Park. According to the local paper, Macleod has endorsed Jay Chadha, a businessman and former municipal candidate, to carry the PC banner in the next election. Also stepping aside in the next election is Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound MPP Rick Byers, who said in a news release that his announcement gives the local riding association the time to nominate a new candidate to represent the riding.
 
Speaking of upcoming Ontario elections, voters in Bay of Quinte will go to the polls this week to choose who will represent the riding at Queen’s Park after long-time Conservative MPP Todd Smith resigned from the position last month to take a job in the private sector. Ford’s Progressive Conservatives were quick to call the byelection in what was assumed to be a strong PC riding, but at least some data suggests the Conservatives might be in trouble. A poll released by Liaison Strategies shows Ontario Liberal candidate Sean Kelly in a dead heat with Progressive Conservative candidate Tyler Allsopp, with 36 per cent and 35 per cent support, respectively. Win or lose, the Ontario Liberals meet in London, Ontario the day after the byelection. A win would bolster Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie as she is set to show off a campaign-ready team to party faithful over the weekend.

Upcoming Events Calendar
September 16, 2024: House of Commons resumes sitting
September 16, 2024: Federal byelections in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun and lmwood—Transcona
September 19, 2024: Ontario byelection in Bay of Quinte
September 20-22: OLP AGM takes place in London, ON
October 21, 2024: Queen’s Park resumes sitting
October 28, 2024: Alberta Legislature resumes sitting
November 1-2, 2024: UCP AGM takes place in Red Deer, AB, including leadership review vote