The Weekly Roundup - November 22, 2024
Back from the Remembrance Day constituency week, the House of Commons is in the final four-and-a-half week stretch to get business wrapped up before it rises for the holidays. The House of Commons, which has been seized with a privilege debate for the last two months – and continues to be – is scheduled to rise on December 17 at the latest and doesn’t come back until well in January 2025. Chief among the business the governing Liberals need Parliament to consider is the supplementary estimates. The estimates contain $24.8 billion in new spending authority, $21.6 billion of which must be voted on and approved by Parliament by December 10. Treasury Board President Anita Anand warnedthat if the estimates aren’t approved that some government departments will run out of money in the next three to four weeks.
It's still not clear how the governing Liberals intend to clear the procedural log jam to allow the House of Commons to vote on the estimates. The NDP has signalled willingness to give the Liberals a temporary reprieve from the privilege debate, but only to pass legislation to enact the Liberal’s proposed GST tax holiday (more on that later). House of Commons Speaker Greg Fergus urged parties to find a way to “balance” the principle of allowing opposition parties to have their grievances heard, with preserving parliaments role in scrutinizing and approving government spending. In the meantime, Fergus is likely considering what role, and options he has available as Speaker in upholding parliament’s role in reviewing the estimates.
South of the border President-elect Donald Trump announced that he’s nominating former Michigan congressman and diplomat Pete Hoekstra to be Ambassador to Canada. Hoekstra is a long-time Trump ally and was considered for cabinet during his first term as president. Hailing from a border state, and formerly the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Hoekstra’s early nomination appears to signal renewed interest in the Canada-US relationship. He is expected to be someone with deep knowledge and understanding of the Canada-US dynamic and someone Canadian officials will be able to work with.
Here are the other top stories that are driving trends that we’re keeping an eye on this week:
Top Federal Stories
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Toronto on Thursday to announce his government’s plan to introduce a two-month GST tax holiday on a wide range of products, as well as plans for a tax rebate in Spring 2025. The Liberal’s latest announcement comes as a majority of Canadians, who are still feeling pinched by months of persistent high inflation, continue to feel the country is heading in the wrong direction. The details of the announcement, which were released in a government backgrounder, show the federal government removing the GST from goods including children’s clothing, diapers and toys, print books and newspapers, Christmas trees, video game consoles, as well as most food and certain alcoholic beverages from December 14, 2024, to February 15, 2025. The new tax rebate, called the Working Canadians Rebate will see the government mail cheques to Canadians who worked in 2023 and earned up to $150,000. The cost associated with the measures is more than $6.2 billion.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who had announced last week that an NDP government would remove GST on essentials such as home heating, children’s clothing, and groceries, was quick to call the Liberal proposal a “win for working people.” Singh says the NDP will provide temporary relief for the governing Liberals in the House of Commons by agreeing to help adjourn the privilege debate for one day to pass legislation that will enact the promised tax cut and rebate. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is calling the Liberal’s plan a “tax trick” and warns that the carbon tax is set to increase again in April.
The Prime Minister once again made a change to his cabinet roster. Trudeau announced on Wednesday, before Question Period, that Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault would be stepping down from cabinet to “focus on clearing” his name from allegations stemming from his business and past descriptions of his Indigenous identity. Boissonnault has been under fire after it came to light that a company he co-owned bid on federal government contracts under the pretence of being an indigenous owned company. Boissonnault, who now says it was a mistake to describe his great-grandmother as a “full-blooded Cree woman” has since apologized for not being clear about his family history. Ginette Petitpas Taylor, Minister of Veterans Affairs and Associate Minister of National Defence is taking over Boissonnault’s portfolio on an interim basis.
Top Alberta Stories
The Alberta Government’s worst kept secret is out, former Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the new Chair of the Board of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMCo). The speculation started shortly after the entire board was fired earlier this month, but on Thursday Premier Danielle Smith made it official.
AIMCo manages more than $160 billion in funds, including pension funds and the Heritage Savings Trust Fund. The majority of the money under AIMCo's control belongs to several public sector pension plans that hold the retirement savings of around 500,000 Albertans, including teachers. Reaction to the announcement was swift with the Alberta Teachers’ Association issuing a statement questioning how the appointment of a prominent political figure impacts the board’s autonomy, when it’s meant to function at arm’s length from government.
The rumour mill has now turned its attention to the role Harper could play in an Alberta Pension Plan. Finance Minister Nate Horner has been adamant there’s no connection, saying he doesn’t know if there’s a person in the country who would be more impossible to control and manipulate than Prime Minister Harper.
Former Cabinet Minister in the Harper administration and New West CEO, Monte Solberg, has unique insight into the appointment sharing that Harper is frugal, cautious, and an excellent communicator. Clients can expect to see those traits on display as he guides AIMCo.
New West is also keeping an eye on Edmonton Police Chief Dale McFee. He announced this week that he will be leaving his role in February and we’ll be monitoring where Chief McFee might land, given current vacancies at the Alberta Legislature.
With a heavy legislative agenda and the house expected to rise in early December, Deputy government house leader Dan Williams moved a government motion this week to allow evening sittings Monday through Wednesday for the duration of the sitting. It’s time the government will need as they continue to move their mandate forward, including the Passenger Rail Master Plan.
Today, the Province hosted a forum bringing passenger rail experts from around the world together to help inform Alberta’s plan. The forum included experts from Ontario, Quebec, California, Italy, Spain and Japan who are involved in passenger rail procurement, governance and operations.
Back in April, the Alberta Government shared its vision for passenger rail and announced the development of the plan. The vision includes a regional rail line between Calgary and Edmonton, with a local transit hub in Red Deer. It also requires a province-led “Metrolinx-like” Crown corporation with a mandate to develop the infrastructure and oversee daily operations, fare collection/booking systems, system maintenance, and planning for future system expansion.
Albertans are being invited to have their say until December 20 through an online survey that launched today or during regional open houses which will be held early next year.
We got a sneak peek at what the next budget could look like when Alberta’s Finance Minister, Nate Horner, delivered the second quarter fiscal update and economic statement. The Minister shared that while the second-quarter fiscal outlook remains positive and a surplus continues to be forecast for 2024-25, risks are on the rise. Ongoing resource volatility, geopolitical instability – including potential tariffs from the United States – and rising pressures at home, such as population growth, were all cited as strains on Alberta’s finances.
The province is forecasting a $4.6 billion surplus at the end of 2024-25, up from the $2.9 billion first quarter forecast and $355 million from budget, due mainly to higher revenue from personal income taxes and non-renewable resources.
However, the finance minister was clear that these are challenging times, and the government is being intentional with every dollar. We expect this to be reflected in Budget 2025 as health care spending continues to increase and the price of oil decreases. The Minister warned if oil prices remain below budget projections, Alberta could run a deficit next year. For context, every $1 drop in the West Texas intermediate oil price means about $630 million in lost revenue annually.
The update whipped up a conversation about resource reliance. Calgary Chamber of Commerce president Deborah Yedlin said that while the chamber is encouraged that higher personal income-tax revenue and commodity prices led to a surplus, she warned ongoing reliance on commodity prices could put long-term fiscal stability at risk. It’s nothing new in Alberta as the Minister noted the Province needs to budget and plan so the economy can flex and stretch to withstand headwinds, including those caused by the roller coaster ride of oil.
New West Public Affairs continues to be well-positioned to assist our clients as the 2025 budget approaches. Please reach out if we can help you with you advocacy efforts.
The race is finally on in Lethbridge-West! The writ was issued Wednesday to administer a by-election to replace long-time MLA and former Environment Minister Shannon Phillips. Both the UCP and NDP candidates have political experience and name recognition in the city. UCP candidate John Middleton-Hope is a former police officer and Lethbridge police chief who now sits on the city’s council. He’s facing off against NDP candidate Rob Miyashiro, a former two-term Lethbridge city councillor and seniors advocate.
For the UCP, Middleton-Hope has built a reputation on Lethbridge City Council as a fiscal hawk primarily concerned with public safety in the city - perhaps not surprising given his past experience as the city's chief of police. The governing party will be looking to leverage their candidate's biography and reputation in the community to make the byelection about public safety issues and an endorsement of Premier Smith's approach to addictions and mental health in a city that has struggled mightily with the opioid crisis.
Meanwhile, the NDP will be using Miyashiro's deep connections in the non-profit and human services sector to make this byelection a referendum on Premier Smith's handling of healthcare in a city where recent estimates have more than half of the population without a family physician. Given that the riding is home to the province's third largest university, and has elected a high profile NDP MLA three elections in a row, the UCP is facing a tough challenge, but with a strong candidate and a party firmly united behind Premier Smith anything can happen.
The byelection will be Naheed Nenshi’s first major test as the NDP’s new leader and the timing could prove disadvantageous for him. Election Day is December 18 and advance voting begins on December 10. Nenshi saw success mobilizing university students during his three terms as Mayor of Calgary. However, December 9 is the last day of classes for University of Lethbridge students who are more likely to be thinking more about exams and the holiday break than their next MLA.
The seat has been a battleground before, with Phillips winning by only a couple hundred votes in 2019 and losing by just over 1,000 votes in 2012. It’s likely to be close again as both candidates face the challenge of convincing volunteers to door knock in winter weather. The Canada Post strike could also have an impact. Electors have 28 days to vote by Special Ballot, but with Canada’s primary postal service not accepting mail, voters will have to find an alternative method to return their ballot.
Top Ontario Stories
Ontario Premier Doug Ford was out with a big dollar announcement for Ontario businesses this week. On Thursday, the Premier announced the Ontario government would provide more than $2.5 billion in WSIB surplus premiums to eligible businesses with a one-time rebate in February 2025. Ford also announced his government will remove the $150 fee for apprentices to take their first certificate of qualification exam in an effort to help people get started in a career in the skilled trades.
Labour Minister David Piccini was in Brampton to announce he will be introducing new legislation that will crack down on “bad actor” immigration consultants who prey on newcomers. The government says the bill – which has not yet been introduced – would enable the province to create standards for immigration representatives and would impose penalties for those who violate the standards including fines and lifetime bans from working in the industry.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in Scarborough on Friday to announce that Ontario is now the third province to sign onto the Federal government’s National School Food Program. Under the details of the agreement Ontario is set to get $108.5 million from the federal government to expand the provinces existing school food program, with the intention of feeding an additional 160,000 children per day before the end of the school year.
Meanwhile the Ontario Liberals launched their first new commercial featuring their leader Bonnie Crombie. The ad paints a bleak picture of a province where working people can’t find doctors, and classrooms are overcrowded. In a voiceover Crombie says, “every day, you hear about another one of Doug Ford’s friends getting richer while you fall behind.” The advertisement, which doesn’t feature traditional Liberal red colours, instead emphasizes Crombie’s own name and brand.
Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles has appointed former Toronto mayor David Miller as a Special Advisor to the Leader to craft a New Deal for municipalities. Stiles, who is accusing Ford’s PC government of meddling in municipal politics hope that Miller can review the provincial municipal relationship, in an effort to allow an NDP government to end provincial interference in local matters, ensure consistent long-term funding, and reverse the provincial downloading of programs and financial responsibilities.
Upcoming Events Calendar
November 26, 2024: Nova Scotia general election
December 16, 2024: Cloverdale-Langley City by-election
December 18, 2024: Lethbridge-West by-election