The Weekly Roundup - November 1, 2024
A busy October has wrapped that saw three provincial elections and the return to the Ontario and Alberta legislative sessions. As the calendar turns to November, New West is digging into the United Conservative Party’s Annual General Meeting and leadership review, highlighting the key pieces coming out of Ontario’s Fall Economic Statement, and giving you the latest coming out of Ottawa, from policy announcements to election rumblings.
Top Federal Stories
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre made a major policy announcement this week. He announced that a Conservative government would scrap the federal sales tax on new build housing sold for under $1 million. Poilievre claims the tax cut could save Canadians $40,000 on the purchase of a new $800,000 home and would help build 30,000 new homes each year. He also says his government would cut the Liberal government’s Housing Accelerator Fund and the Canada Housing Infrastructure fund to offset the cost of the sales tax cut. Liberal Housing Minister Sean Fraser criticized the proposal, saying the Conservatives are making policy on the backside of a napkin, but housing policy expert Mike Moffatt, who has presented at Liberal cabinet retreats, called the proposal an incredibly bold measure to restore housing affordability.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is still the Leader of the Liberal Party. Despite calls from some Liberal MPs for a secret-ballot vote on Justin Trudeau’s leadership at this week’s national caucus meeting, the slow-moving coup against Trudeau by some members of the Liberal party appears to have fizzled, at least for now. Instead, new national campaign director Andrew Bevan revealed to Liberal MPs at least part of his plan to take on Pierre Poilievre in the next election.
Part of that plan is a slate of new ads the Liberals plan to run highlighting their record in contrast with the Conservatives. Indeed, the Liberal Party launched two new digital ads on social media this week. The ads tout the “real progress” the Liberals have made and warn they “won’t go back” to the spectre of Conservative cuts.
Meanwhile, third quarter fundraising results which were posted by Election Canada show the Conservatives raising more money than all other parties combined by a wide margin. The Conservatives raised $8.5 million between July and September, while the Liberals raised $3.3 million and the NDP $1.3 million. In a statement, Conservative Party spokesperson Sarah Fisher said the Party had the best non-election year Q3 of any Canadian political party ever.
Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet has signaled the Bloc is ready to bring down the government at the next opportunity, after the Liberals failed to meet his party’s demands to pass two bills on supply management and old age security. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on the other hand said his party isn’t looking for an election at the moment. It’s unclear when the next opportunity to topple the government might be; the House of Commons remained deadlocked for another week as debate on the House’s right to access certain documents continued.
Top Alberta Stories
United Conservative Party members are heading to Red Deer this weekend for the much-anticipated Annual General Meeting and vote on Premier Danielle Smith’s leadership. Close to 6,000 delegates are registered to attend, debate policy proposals, and decide if they want Premier Smith to continue leading the party and province. For months the Premier has been working around the clock to shore up support - governing by day and attending member only town halls at night and on the weekends.
While Premier Smith has been putting in the time to strike a balance between the needs of more moderate Albertans and the demands of a ‘big tent’ conservative party, history has been unkind to conservative leaders in the province. Smith’s predecessors in the UCP and PC parties, Jason Kenney, Alison Redford, Ed Stelmach, and Ralph Klein all left their position as Premier after the party – not the province – decided their fate. Former Premier Jason Kenney technically won his leadership vote in 2022 with a 51.4 per cent approval rating, but ultimately resigned saying the result was not what he hoped for or expected. Following in Kenney’s footsteps with an early departure after winning a majority government is something Premier Smith is looking to avoid as Members of the Legislative Assembly returned to Edmonton for the fall session.
As expected, the Alberta Bill of Rights Amendment Act or Bill 24, was introduced on the first day of the sitting. A hallmark of the bill is the protection it provides for personal autonomy around vaccines. Still, there are segments of the UCP who are not satisfied with the direction Premier Smith is taking and have spoken publicly about their discontent. UCP Minister’s and MLAs have been quick to counter this narrative, releasing endorsement videos praising the Premier. 50 per cent is the threshold laid out in the UCP’s governance documents and Smith has been clear that anything over the 53 per cent she received when she ran for leader would be considered an improvement.
New West will be on the ground at the convention in Red Deer this weekend keeping a close eye on the resolutions and leadership vote.
Top Ontario Stories
Ontario’s Finance Minister, the Hon. Peter Bethlenfalvy tabled the province’s Fall Economic Statement at Queen’s Park on Wednesday. Many of the key pieces of the FES had already been announced as Premier Ford and his cabinet criss-crossed the province on a campaign-style tour, touting the Progressive Conservative government record with a heavy focus on building infrastructure, fighting gridlock, and keeping costs down.
The PC’s are highlighting $200 rebate cheques, which would be mailed to all eligible adults in Ontario who filed their 2023 income taxes. Eligible families would also receive $200 for each child under 18.
Also included in the FES:
extending gas and fuel tax cut until June 30, 2025, which the province claims will save the average Ontario family $380;
expanding the Learn and Stay Grant, with an additional $88 million over three years and an emphasis on students committed to practicing family medicine;
investing an additional $150 million to expand the Ontario Fertility Program, to increase the number of people who can access government-funded IVF and fertility treatment, and;
adding an additional $100 million over two years to the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund, the province’s main general assistance grant for municipalities.
Minister Bethlenfalvy also announced that the province is now projecting a deficit of $6.6 billion in 2024-25, an improvement from the $9.8 billion deficit the province was predicting in the 2024-25 budget. Moreover, the Finance Minister is projecting that Ontario is on a “path to balance” and will achieve a surplus of $0.9 billion in 2026-27. Some are pointing out that the province could actually be on track to balance the budget a year earlier. The province is projecting a $1.5 billion deficit in 2025-26, but is maintaining a $1.5 billion reserve fund for that year. If the reserve remains untouched, the PC’s may have the opportunity to announce a balanced budget ahead of an early election next year.
The FES also cast cold water on the government’s commitment to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031. The homebuilding forecast shows the province is well behind where it needs to be to reach its target. This year alone the target is 125,000 new homes, but the FES forecasts the province is only on track to build 81,300. Despite that, Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Paul Calandra insists his government “will not fail” to meet the 2031 goal.
Upcoming Events Calendar
November 1-2, 2024: UCP AGM takes place in Red Deer, AB, including leadership review vote
November 26, 2024: Nova Scotia General Election