The Weekly Roundup - 2023 Lookahead

After a break for the holidays, we wanted to look ahead to the main stories we expect to shape Alberta politics in 2023. In a year that is sure to be eventful in Alberta politics, these general themes are likely to dominate headlines and frame the election that’s set to come this spring. 

1. Inflation /recession
A recession could arrive as soon as the first quarter of 2023, following continued stressors on the Canadian economy. Ongoing inflation has led to a series of interest rate hikes and food prices are expected to keep rising, causing stress for Alberta families. With these pressures on the pocketbooks of regular Albertans, it’ll be up to the provincial government to thread the needle of doling out targeted supports while also being mindful of conservative principles when deciding how to spend (or save) the windfall from increased oil prices. Starting this month, six months of affordability payments will begin for eligible seniors and families to offset inflationary pressures.

2. Healthcare
Alberta’s health care system continues to be under immense strain with surging respiratory illnesses on the back end of the pandemic. Premier Danielle Smith has stated during her leadership campaign that she wants to reform the health care system in the province and has started that work by dismissing the Alberta Health Services board. Some changes to the AHS structure should be in place before the spring election, but it remains to be seen whether more details of Smith’s leadership campaign promise of health spending accounts for all Albertans will be unveiled before then. For a roadmap of the big picture changes the Smith government wants to make to Alberta’s health care system, it’s worth revisiting Health Minister Jason Copping’s mandate letter.

3. Relationship with Ottawa
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to be a regular foil of the UCP government and you can expect to see that continue into 2023. In fact, the UCP have taken to framing dealings with the federal government as the Trudeau-Singh-Notley alliance, attempting to lump the federal Liberal and NDP parties and provincial NDP party as one big boogeyman. Top of mind in 2023 in dealing with the feds will be seeing whether there will be an increase to health care transfers, going toe-to-toe on climate change and “just transition” legislation, raising a ruckus when the federal carbon tax increases April 1 and deciding whether the UCP chooses to put their newly passed Sovereignty Act to the test against any federal legislation (it looks unlikely at present).

4. Alberta General Election
A general election is set to take place on May 29, 2023 and you can expect every action taken by the UCP government in the leadup to that date to be in acknowledgement of winning the election. That includes any additional money handed out to Albertans on top of the measures doled out through the $2.8 billion Affordability Action Plan, the upcoming first budget of the Smith government and any other legislation introduced in the spring session of the Legislature. 

In 2019, the Kenney team sailed to victory with a focus on jobs, the economy and pipelines. While the Smith team is busy crafting their platform for 2023, you can expect to again see a focus on jobs and the economy including touting strong jobs numbers being a result of UCP policy, with a bit of accountability in government and our health care system tossed in for good measure.

Both the UCP and NDP were busy filling their war chests in 2022 ahead of the election, with both parties touting around $7 million in fundraising for the last year. You can expect to see more and more ad buys from the two main political parties and a number of third party advertisers as they attempt to frame the election as they see fit in the coming months. 

For the NDP, some general themes to watch for as they try to frame the ballot box question will be competent leadership, diversifying the economy and standing up for Alberta’s public healthcare and education systems.

Expect a hard fought, divisive election with much of the focus on battleground Calgary between two leaders who have both held the Premier’s chair and want to return. It’s incredibly unlikely that any other political party in the province has a shot at winning a seat in the Legislature.

We'll be back next week with a regular edition of the Roundup.