Showdown in Saskatchewan: Who Can Carve Out Votes this Thanksgiving Weekend?

As Saskatchewan residents gather with friends and family this long weekend, the topic of conversation is bound to turn to the impending provincial election. Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe and Saskatchewan NDP leader Carla Beck have spent the last two weeks pitching voters on their plans for the economy, healthcare, education, and affordability.

Moe wants families to sit down to dinner asking which party is best to grow the economy, while Beck is counting on a conversation about the need for change, particularly in healthcare and education.

Since the end of July, there have only been four public polls conducted across the province. Insightrix, Mainstreet Research, and Angus Reid all show the NDP polling strong in Regina and Saskatoon, with the Sask. Party maintaining its support in rural areas. According to Saskatchewan based Insightrix: 

• The NDP benefits from majority backing in Saskatoon (66%) and a close contest in Regina (62%), but still struggles outside of those two cities, where a majority voice support for incumbent Premier Scott Moe and the Saskatchewan Party.

• Besides the more rural areas of the province, Moe’s party also leads the NDP among men (52%) and those older than 55 (51%).

As Thanksgiving dinner is prepped across the province, it appears voters in major cities have a greater appetite for Beck’s ballot box question, while those in rural areas still consider Moe’s offer more palatable. 
  

Heard on the Trail

“In different parts of the province, you’re starting with different numbers of people already predisposed to being supportive of each party. There are some kind of fixed characteristics that I think help to explain the difference between rural and urban areas.”
 

- Dr. Daniel Westlake, an associate professor of political science at the University of Saskatchewan, as quoted by the Lloydminster Meridian Source

This Week at a Glace  

The Saskatchewan NDP released its platform Friday which outlines already announced commitments, including suspending the gas tax for six months and removing the provincial sales tax from children’s clothing. It also includes investments in healthcare and education with Beck promising to get Saskatchewan out of last place.

While Beck spent the early days of her campaign inoculating against sentiment that the NDP can’t manage the economy, she’s now focused on two top issues for voters: healthcare and education. She traveled to Moose Jaw, a battleground riding, to announce a new elementary school. She stood outside St. Paul's Hospital in Saskatoon to say she would address stretched emergency rooms by hiring more full-time staff, modernizing legislation to get paramedics out of waiting rooms, and extending the hours of Saskatoon City Hospital. 

Saskatchewan Party leader Scott Moe also addressed healthcare this week. On Monday he announced a re-elected Sask. Party government would introduce self-screening for cervical cancer and help with the cost of fertility treatment. He also pledged to increase the Disability Tax Credit and extend coverage for people living with diabetes. Moe returned to his main message today, saying the Sask. Party would make permanent the small business tax reduction it implemented following the COVID-19 pandemic.

While Carla Beck and the NDP have been showcasing candidates across the province, the Sask. Party is running a more leader centric campaign with Moe taking center stage. However, Saskatoon Westview candidate David Buckingham was thrust into the spotlight midweek when he stood with Scott Moe to apologize for using a racial slur a year ago. The incident was revealed by outgoing house speaker and former Sask. Party MLA Randy Weekes.

It's the first firework in a campaign that’s been focused on the issues facing voters. Sparks are expected to fly next week when the leaders face off in the first debate on October 16. 

In The Media

Saskatchewan Party, NDP leaders address crime on campaign trail ahead of election: Saskatchewan’s two main party leaders addressed crime Thursday, with Scott Moe promising more powers for police and the NDP’s Carla Beck slamming the Saskatchewan Party’s record.

Saskatchewan's main political parties address health care issues during campaign: Saskatchewan's two main party leaders were on the campaign trail Wednesday addressing health care, with Carla Beck's NDP promising to get emergency rooms back on track while Scott Moe's Saskatchewan Party proposed expanding coverage for diabetics.

Elections Saskatchewan introduces 6-day voting week: After a historic downturn in voter turnout for provincial elections, voters will have six days to get to the polls instead of just one as Elections Saskatchewan hopes to increase voter participation.
 

Riding to Watch

Saskatchewan Party incumbent Gene Makowsky faces a tough re-election battle in the redrawn riding of Regina University. The boundaries shifted significantly to include much of Makowsky’s old Gardiner Park riding, but also expanded to house a younger voter base. 

A former Saskatchewan Roughriders football player, Makowsky has strong name recognition. He was first elected to the legislature in 2011 and was re-elected in the 2016 and 2020 provincial campaigns. He has served as Deputy Whip and as Legislative Secretary to the Minister of Parks, Culture and Sport. However, his role most recently as the Minister of Social Services has been plagued with challenges.

He’s running against NDP candidate Sally Housser. While she isn’t a household name in Saskatchewan, voters may recognize her as she frequently appears as a political commentor on television, radio, and in print media. She has extensive campaign experience and volunteers with a number of organizations in Regina.

This riding is a target for the NDP and the redrawn boundary, combined with Makowsky’s most recent work in social services may play to their favour.

Days Until Election Day: 16