Battle for BC: Conservative Momentum Grows as Tight Race Continues in BC
BC NDP Leader David Eby and B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad are now two weeks into the 2024 BC election, pitching themselves to voters on topics including reconciliation and Indigenous relations, healthcare, affordability, energy, and how paper straws suck.
With the campaign entering its final two weeks, the Conservatives have begun to open up polling leads in recent samples released by Leger and Mainstreet Research.
This past week Rustad spoke at a Truth and Reconciliation event in Cultus Lake, BC where he said if elected, he would ensure First Nations are involved in large forestry, mining and energy projects from beginning to end through a loan guarantee program, allowing them to realize their full economic potential. Furthermore, he stated that the federal government has neglected First Nations and under his leadership he would ensure the federal government is fronting the cost.
On Saturday, the nominations for the election officially closed. Approximately one quarter of NDP cabinet ministers who had portfolios prior to the election campaign will not be on the ballot October 19. Eby is likely feeling the effects of taking the helm partway through former NDP Premier John Horgan’s mandate, and the natural transition that comes with changing leaders, and changing polls. B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad used the change in faces among NDP candidates as an opportunity to question Eby’s leadership.
Some of Eby’s most experienced front bench will not be on the ballot for re-election, including Harry Bains, Katrine Conroy, Rob Fleming, Mitzi Dean, and Murray Rankin. George Heyman, who introduced the NDP government’s Clean B.C. climate and economic plan and Bruce Ralston, who played a key role in the US-Canada trade relationship concerning lumber and the future of the BC forestry sector are also not running again.
Heard on the Trail
"Even with the changes, the retiring heavy-hitters come mostly from ridings that are NDP strongholds and are likely to remain that way.”
- Hamish Telford, political scientist at the University of the Fraser Valley as quoted in the Vancouver Sun
This Week at a Glance
A Focus on Affordability
Eby released his full platform late in the week, giving a roadmap for the final two weeks of the campaign. The platform, titled An Action Plan for You includes some splashy new items, including a $1,000-per-household grocery rebate next year, allowing pets in purpose-built rentals, ensuring every public school has a mental health counsellor, and free off-peak transit for seniors. The platform spends a lot of time also mentioning B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad (56 times to be exact) while framing the NDP’s position up against the “Rustad Risk”.
All in all, the new platform commits to spending an additional $3 billion, with the province's budget deficit to increase next year from the previously projected $6.7 billion to $9.6 billion.
Eby also announced an exemption of $10,000 of individual income each year beginning in 2025, in a move that would benefit 90 per cent of BC families with a middle-class tax cut of $1,000. The NDP tax cut was announced one week after the BC Conservatives introduced the “Rustad Rebate,” which would exempt up to $3,000 per month of rent or mortgage interest costs from provincial income taxes. Eby claimed that the BC Conservatives plan wouldn’t provide benefit to families until 2029, whereas his plan would come to fruition sooner and benefit families in the new year.
Rustad put another affordability platform plank out to voters this week, unveiling his auto insurance plan with a plan to open the market and end the so-called monopoly. He said by allowing more competition amongst auto insurance companies, individuals will have access to lower rates.
Caring about Healthcare
Eby spent time in the southern Interior announcing support for rural healthcare patients while taking swipes at the conservative’s healthcare plan. He committed to expanding the Travel Assistance Program to permit mileage claims for rural citizens driving to treatment centres as well as upfront payments. Additionally, he committed to increasing protections in legislation from eight days up to 27 weeks for workers to take time off due to critical illness, adopting a similar standard in neighboring jurisdictions.
Eby warned the Conservative’s healthcare plan would involve cutting the budget and increasing private, for-profit clinics as a solution to surgical wait lists. The Eby government, has already permitted a small amount of surgeries to take place in private clinics. Rustad has repeatedly denied the accusation the Conservative party would cut healthcare spending.
Bringing Energy to the Campaign
On Tuesday, Rustad made an announcement in Sea-to-Sky country on his party’s new energy platform revealing that if elected, he would amend BC's Clean Energy Act to permit and encourage nuclear power in the province. He also committed to conducting an analysis of small modular reactors and seismic safety, with the intention to build BC’s first nuclear plant by 2035.
For the past year, NDP Leader Eby has been saying that “nuclear energy is a no-go in BC,” has proposed plans to shutter BC’s last gas-fuelled power plant, and proposed the installation of stand-alone gas home heating systems by 2030.
The B.C. Conservatives argue that the solar and wind power proposals from the NDP are not able to provide adequate base-load power the way hydro and nuclear can. Along with the nuclear proposal, Rustad referred to the NDP’s electric vehicle and heat pump goals as “radical” and stated he intends to reverse them.
A Tale of Two Visions
The two leaders spent some time together this week on the campaign trail, participating in their first radio debate. Eby and Rustad didn’t agree on much throughout the debate, except that affordability is the top issue of the campaign.
The leaders also appeared at the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, where they separately made their pitches to the business community. Rustad emphasized the need for a strong economy and his intention to cut taxes in the province. He said to achieve prosperity, barriers needed to be removed such as getting rid of heat pump and electric vehicle regulations and tougher sentencing for repeat offenders. He also underscored his commitment to cut spending and balance the budget.
Eby’s spiel was focused on investing in housing affordability, healthcare, investing in critical infrastructure and diversifying the economy.
Latest Polls
In the Media
To spend or to cut? How finances factor into the B.C. election: BC NDP says it's committed to more spending on more services; Conservatives say they aim to balance budget
B.C. Election: NDP and Conservatives are far apart on how to address the housing crisis: Here's a deeper look at a few of the key housing issues and where the parties stand
B.C. needs more power. Is nuclear energy worth the cost? The B.C. Conservatives say it is a conversation the province needs to have, and have pledged legal changes to permit nuclear power if elected
Full B.C. NDP platform includes speculation tax hike, some free transit for seniors: An increased speculation tax on homes, matching minimum wage increases with inflation, free transit for seniors in off-peak hours, modernizing liquor laws, free menopause treatment, quarterly PST filings, and doubling electricity generation by 2050 are all new promises on top of previously-announced policies.
Riding to Watch: Surrey–Serpentine River
Baltej Dhillon – BC NDP
Linda Hepner – Conservative Party
Polling indicates Surrey-Serpentine River is in a dead heat between the NDP and the Conservatives. The riding was created in the 2021 electoral distribution. Historically the surrounding ridings have seen close races between the NDP and the BC United/Liberal party. Surrey is vote rich with ten ridings, which could play a large part in determining the direction of the election.
BC NDP candidate Baltej Dhillon has been serving as an RCMP member for 30 years and made history in the 90’s when he was the first RCMP officer to be permitted to wear a turban as part of his uniform. Dhillon has made public safety a campaign focus, and his career in law enforcement lends credibility to making real change.
B.C. Conservative Party candidate Linda Hepner is the former Surrey mayor and councillor and is running on a platform of reversing what she calls the NDP tragedy, saying the NDP have caused Surrey to be unaffordable and unsafe. Hepner, with over two decades of experience serving Surrey including as lead on an initiative to relocate a significant homeless population, has distinguished herself as a skilled and accomplished candidate.