𝘖𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘙𝘰𝘢𝘥 𝘪𝘯 𝘖𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘰: Election Night Unpacked
Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party secured a historic third majority government last night. A rare hat trick not seen since PC Premier Leslie Frost led the party to a third majority in the 1959 election. Ford likely envisioned a bigger win when he called the election, but the PCs’ 80 seats fell 3 short of their 2022 election results. Party insiders are certain to be disappointed they weren’t able to run up the seat count, but for most, securing a mandate for a third majority government is a win in their books.
Fresh off their election win, the PCs will have to step into action on the heels of U.S. President Donald Trump confirmation of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods starting March 4th. With Ontario’s manufacturing economy on the line, the newly minted majority government now has a clear mandate to Protect Ontarioand respond swiftly to the challenge ahead.
The race for second place served up the night’s biggest nail-biter as the votes rolled in. Despite trailing the Liberals by 10 percentage points in the popular vote, Marit Stiles’ NDP will return to Queen’s Park with the second-greatest number of seats, having held off challengers in most areas of the province. While the orange wave lost a bit of steam, with four fewer seats than in 2022 and a caucus of 27 members heading to Queen’s Park, the NDP was able to handily win back Hamilton Centre from ousted MPP Sara Jama.
It was a mixed bag for Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals. The silver lining? They managed to boost their seat count compared to 2022. The Liberals will have 14 members at Queen’s Park, which means they finally regain official party status, giving them additional resources and staff to support their parliamentary work. The gut punch? Bonnie Crombie will not be one of those 14 members. The Liberal leader failed to win her seat in Mississauga East – Cooksville. Crombie is vowing to stay on as party leader, but the knives will be out. Crombie’s value proposition of winning in the suburbs fell flat and while there’s no clear alternative waiting in the wings, the whispers of dissent are bound to get louder.
Voter turnout saw a slight uptick, with approximately 45.4% of eligible Ontarians casting their ballots, a modest increase from the record low of 43% in 2022. This winter election, called more than a year ahead of schedule, defied critics who predicted that seasonal challenges would further dampen voter participation.
Today on Tour
With the threat of tariffs coming as early as next week, we don’t expect Doug Ford to keep the legislature closed for long. Originally scheduled to come back March 3, MPPs will need a few days to be sworn in, but PCs are expected to hit the ground running on their mandate to get ahead of the potential economic fallout.
As for the government, work will resume on development of a budget expected in the spring, including updates based on the PC’s $40 billion worth of campaign commitments. Ford may also take this opportunity to tweak his cabinet and parliamentary assistant ranks to showcase new members and fix areas where the government wants to show more progress over the next four years.
Not much will change for the NDP, at least in the short term. Fewer members mean more work for the remaining caucus members. In the immediate future, the NDP will likely continue prosecuting the Ford government on the issues they raised during the campaign. We expect to hear more about the Greenbelt scandal and the ominous spectre of an RCMP investigation.
What comes next for the Liberals is harder to predict. Returning to Queen’s Park as an official party means more resources, money, and staff to support the Liberal caucus’ parliamentary objectives. But the failure to secure Bonnie Crombie a seat in the legislature is a problem, both for Crombie’s prospect to remain leader, and for the party’s ability to drive its agenda. With no immediate movement to push Crombie out and given the fact the party picked up some seats last night means Crombie is likely safe in the short term. But longer term, the party is sure to evaluate whether it has the appeal to win in the seat-rich suburbs, where it needs to if it wants to return to power.
For all parties, there will be relief that the campaign is over. For the winners, however, the hard work of governing in the face of economic and geopolitical headwinds is just starting.
Need expert government relations support to navigate Ontario’s evolving political landscape? Let New West chart your public affairs path forward. 🚀
